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HomeMy WebLinkAboutproposal.Diamond Bar.F.2025.02.112001 Addison Street | Suite 300 | Berkeley, CA 94704 | T 510.379.5180 | F 202.776.9074 WASHINGTON, DC | BERKELEY, CA | NEW YORK, NY Proposal to Conduct Public Opinion Research for the City of Diamond Bar Submitted by: David Mermin and Emma Scotty Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 2 A. Cover Letter We thank the City of Diamond Bar for the opportunity to submit this proposal to provide professional research services and inform recommendations on revenue mechanisms. Lake Research Partners (LRP) has over 25 years of experience helping municipalities and government agencies understand the concerns and priorities of their constituents across California and throughout the nation. We understand the information needs of public agencies, recognizing that their research data is usually public record, and we know the difference between polling for a political campaign and polling for a public agency. As a Woman-Owned Small-Business (WOSB), LRP is a nationally recognized qualitative and quantitative research firm providing a full range of public opinion research, from research design through analysis and reporting. The firm’s experiences precisely match the scope of this research and the needs of the City of Diamond Bar. All our work is for entities facing public policy questions; we do not conduct conventional market research for products. We have specific experience conducting research for local govern ments as well as experience researching public attitudes toward municipal services, much of it in California. We have an office located in Berkeley headed by Partner David Mermin, who has led our California research team for over 20 years. As an LRP client, you will benefit from the resources of a large national firm combined with the personal attention of a small local one. LRP employs a team of 35 full-time professional, technical, and administrative staff, led by senior partners who are thoroughly experienced in qualitative and quantitative research, data collection, analysis, reporting, and project management. LRP’s annual revenue is approximately $11,000,000 per year. LRP has the financial capability to carry out the proposed research and shall exercise due diligence in the performance of the work and in applying the facilities, equipment, materials , and qualified personnel necessary for its accomplishment in an efficient and timely manner. Each of our clients is served by a small, dedicated team of analysts led by one of our partners. We understand that our research is often integral to the wider efforts and goals of our clients, and as such we are deeply com mitted to the timely delivery of accurate and actionable data. LRP is one of the few women-owned businesses, founded by women, in the political and public opinion research space. At LRP, diversity is a guiding value that we believe strengthens our organization and the research we conduct on behalf of our clients. As of LRP’s most recent staff survey, half of the LRP team members are women, nearly one third identify as a race or ethnicity other than white – including Latinx, Black, Asian, and mixed race – and one in five identify as LGBTQ. Of LRP’s six partners, two are women and one is Latino. More than half of LRP’s senior leadership with decision -making responsibilities are women, people of color, and people in the LGBTQ+ community. Recognizing internships are an important entry point to the world of polling, and the systemic imbalances with unpaid intern programs, LRP offers remote internships and pays interns a living wage, which allows us to draw from an economically and racially diverse pool of applicants. We conduct both quantitative (online and telephone surveys) and qualitative (live and online focus groups, online bulletin boards, dial groups, and in-depth interviews) research on a variety of projects, including political candidates, issue campaigns, advocacy organizations, and non -profit groups. We also work with leading specialists in data analytics, media targeting, linguistic optimization, and voter engagement to ensure our research is developed and applied in the most cost-effective manner. Our principals are leading strategists, serving as tacticians and senior advisors to a wide range of advocacy groups, non-profits, and foundations, as well as dozens of elected officials at all levels of government. We are innovators and creative thinkers when it comes to how we approach our work, as evidenced by our award-winning research cited below. We match methods with our clients’ needs. We are collaborative and work as a team with our client partners. Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 3 B. Project Team Your LRP team would be led by California-based partner David Mermin, with the support of analysts Emily Garner, Emma Scotty, and Connor Olio. David Mermin is a Partner at Lake Research Partners and heads the firm’s Berkeley office. With David always accessible in the Bay Area, you get the attention and expertise you deserve and a full-time, committed partner who is available for in-person consultation. David and his team conduct rigorous quantitative and qualitative opinion research on a wide range of topics including democracy and voting rights, health care, transportation, immigration, economic opportunity, and retirement security. He has served as pollster and strategist for dozens of candidates at all electoral levels including Governors, Senators, current Congressmembers Raul Ruiz of California, Pramila Jayapal of Washington, and Hank Johnson of Georgia, 5 current members of the California legislature, as well as for numerous state and local ballot initiative campaigns. His issue clients at LRP have included America’s Voice, FairVote, PolicyLink, Unidos US, AFL-CIO, SEIU, UFCW, and the Brennan Center for Justice. In California his clients include local public agencies and organizations working on health care, environmental protection, housing, and racial and economic equity. Mermin joined LRP in 1996. He holds an M.A. in Geography with a concentration in political and urban geography from the University of Minnesota, and a B.A. in Political Science from Brown University. Emily Garner is a Senior Analyst at Lake Research Partners and joined in 2018. Emily brings a background in quantitative political science research with a focus on economic outcomes & statistical programming to the firm and works with a broad range of clients, including candidates, labor unions, and issue advocacy organizations. She has previously interned at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, on Cynthia Nixon’s campaign for Governor, and at the UK House of Commons. Emily is from New York City and holds a B.A. in Economics and Political Science with a minor in History from Washington University in St. Louis. Emma Scotty, Senior Analyst, joined Lake Research Partners in 2023. Prior to joining LRP, Emma was a pollster with Expedition Strategies working primarily on political campaigns since 2018. Emma works with foundations, nonprofits, government agencies, and advocacy organizations focus ing on protecting the environment, public education, and LGBTQ rights. An Illinois native, Emma holds a B.A. in Environmental Studies and History from the University of Chicago, where she was also involved in environmental education and advocacy. Connor Olio, Associate Analyst, joined Lake Research Partners as an Analyst in 2023 after interning with the firm for a year. Before joining LRP, Connor previously held internships at the UVA Center for Politics, a criminal defense law firm, and the Democratic Party of Virginia. Originally from Richmond, Virginia, Connor holds a B.A. in Government with a minor in History from the University of Virginia. C. Experience Lake Research Partners has significant experience conducting research on behalf of municipal governments and government agencies across the state of California. • We have worked with the City of Berkeley since 2012, conducting phone surveys to gauge resident concerns, satisfaction with city services, and potential support for various ballot measures, including revenue measures, in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022 , and 2024. This research has informed the City Council on which ballot measures had the strongest support and enabled the Council and their allies to refine messaging, leading to the passage of an infrastructure bond, a public campaign financing measure, a measure that created a citizen’s redistricting commission, a soda tax, and multiple revenue measures to help address affordable housing as well as to support parks, recreation, and transportation improvements, among others. A report of our findings from the first of two surveys in 2024 can be found here. Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 4 • Our work for the East Bay Regional Park District over the past four years includes community surveys of District residents in 2020 and 2024, covering awareness and usage of EBRPD parks and trails, priorities for the district, access to the parks, and the importance of various district programs and initiatives to residents. In addition, LRP conducted three surveys of East Bay voters in 2020-21 to assess their support for various potential revenue measures that could appear on the ballot, identify their priorities for funding, and test potential messages for these measures. • LRP is currently engaged with the Alameda-Contra Costa Transportation Authority (AC Transit) on a multiphase public opinion research project among current riders of the local bus system. In 2023, LRP fielded a ridership survey via on-board intercepts in April and May to gauge current riders’ levels of satisfaction with the system overall, as well as with the buses, bus stops, service tools, and communication tools. In 2024, LRP conducted six in-person focus groups among current riders to further explore customer satisfaction and gather feedback on services provided. • On behalf of the Santa Clara County Valley Transportation Authority (VTA), LRP conducted focus groups and telephone surveys to develop a public goodwill building and branding campaign with Metropolitan Group in 2015-16, 2019, and 2022. This campaign’s main goals included motivating more of the county’s residents to see public transit – and walking, bicycling, and ride- sharing – as viable, reliable (safe and efficient), and preferred alternatives to driving, as well as enhancing the public’s knowledge and perception of the VTA as the agency that provides sustainable, accessible, and community-focused transportation options to Santa Clara County, California. • LRP conducted survey research in English and Chinese for the effort to redevelop Hunters Point in San Francisco, to gauge voters’ and neighbors’ views on the revitalization of this community. Our research illustrated that the initiative enjoyed overwhelming support, but this support was further fueled by messaging surrounding the increase in jobs, parks, and affordable housing. • We conducted a survey for the San Francisco Office of Community Investment and Infrastructure (OCII) to assess the housing needs and concerns of Certificate of Preference Holders who were displaced by Redevelopment Agency actions in certain parts of San Francisco during the 1960s and 70s. LRP publicly presented the report to the San Francisco Housing Commission and discussed implications of its findings for housing policy. • LRP conducted research on behalf of Sonoma County Department of Health Services to understand Sonoma County residents’ views of dental health and their support for ensuring access to dental care. Our research found that while the majority of residents consider dental care to be important, particularly for their children, cost was a major barrier to access and one that residents felt strongly that the Sonoma County government should do more to address. Our resulting recommendations have informed a multi-year strategic campaign to improve awareness and access to dental health in Sonoma County. • We conducted several surveys over a number of years commissioned by the Orange County Storm Water Public Education Committee designed to serve as a baseline against which changes in public knowledge, behaviors, and opinions could be measured. The survey results also serve as a tool for the Orange County Storm Water Committee to use in developing messages to communicate effectively with the public about storm water and urban runoff issues. • LRP worked on behalf of Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) in two phases to determine the importance of earthquake retrofitting of tunnels under the San Francisco Bay and voter willingness to pay for the improvements. Following this research, voters passed Measure AA, a $980 million bond, to retrofit vulnerable parts of the system and establish a Citizen Oversight Board recommended by our research. Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 5 • We conducted a survey commissioned by the City of Aliso Viejo to study the public’s views on the state of the city. Important to our research was assessing residents’ satisfaction with city services, as well as prioritizing the city’s needs and plans for future development. Our work included concrete recommendations for improving public services, pursuing new projects, communicating with residents, and efforts to make the city more pedestrian friendly. • In addition, we have worked on school bond measures (and property and parcel tax measures) for California school districts such as the San Juan Unified and Folsom Cordova Unified School District. The City of Laguna Niguel retained LRP to survey its citizens on library usage, with an eye toward developing a larger local library. We conducted similar research in Chula Vista to gauge public support for creating a public library district. We conducted polling in six California school districts in need of bond funding to make key investments in public education. We helped pass Measure A for the Peralta Community College District here in the East Bay. As a national firm, LRP also has relevant experience across the country . Examples include: • We are currently engaged in a project in Great Falls, Montana to assess how receptive voters will be to an additional levy to support Great Falls schools and learn the best ways for advocates to frame and discuss the levy. • In December we conducted a survey in Lincoln, Nebraska to assess how receptive Lincoln voters will be to extending the existing city sales tax ahead of an initiative this April. The purpose of the survey was to recommend ways for advocates to frame and discuss the sales tax in a tax sensitive environment, as well as determine the best messengers in favor of retaining the sales tax and gauge vulnerabilities. We found that a threats framing is most effective - without this tax, the city can’t maintain streets, reduce traffic, and it could delay first responders. • Last year we worked on a ballot initiative in Gwinnett County, Georgia on behalf of the Gwinnett Fund for a Transit Development Plan that proposed a 17-billion-dollar transit system to increase mobility and economic development by creating more reliable transit options. We found that it was effective to focus on lived experiences rather than data, like the impact on traffic and congestion, expanding reliable low-cost transit to hospitals, colleges, and universities, helping people get to and from their jobs, and increasing jobs and opportun ities and attracting new businesses in the county. • For the Great Falls Public Library, we conducted a survey of their service area to measure support and opposition to two versions of a mill levy. We helped them understand which services resonated the most with voters and we identified the most salient reasons to support and oppose additio nal funding. We saw that reading, reaching those who are homebound, focusing on children, and technology were important factors to support additional funding for the Great Falls Public Library. We provided guidance on the amount of the mill levy and the potential timing. The library was successful in their ballot measure in 2023. • In 2023, we worked on behalf of Jackson County (Missouri)’s Children’s Services Fund to ensure passage of County Question 1, which won with 75% support, doubling the sales tax levy and ending the sunset clause to fund the CSF’s work on behalf of county children. While our polling showed broad support at the outset, we found that it matter ed whether voters heard positive or negative messages first, and—even more important—which side had the last word. In addition to informing the substance and themes of the campaign’s messaging, the polling also helped determine the timeline of the campaign’s communications strategy. • In 2021, we conducted focus groups in partnership with Summit County (Ohio)’s ArtsNow on the matter of establishing a stable source of funding for local arts and culture offerings. We found a mostly optimistic outlook for a prospective campaign to coalesce public support for establishing a stable source of funding for arts and culture in Summit County. Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 6 • In 2020, we completed a project with the District of Columbia Housing Authority to assess their brand image and help them develop a long-term strategic communications plan. We conducted quantitative research with public housing residents, housing choice voucher participants, and residents across Washington D.C. We conducted qualitative research with public housing residents, housing choice voucher participants, DCHA staff, landlords, vendors, and housing advocates. Our research provided DCHA with an understanding of how they are perceived by the stakeholders they engage with daily and provided them with recommendations on communications and branding strategy. • In 2019, LRP conducted research on behalf of the Washington State Housing Finance Commission, surveying housing development organizations on their experiences using the WSHFC’s low-income tax credit programs. Our research has enabled the WSHFC to optimize their offerings, in order to make use of limited resources to best serve the needs of progra m users and local communities. • In 2019, we polled for the Pittsburgh Parks Conservancy (Pennsylvania) exploring voters’ support for various revenue raising options to create a dedicated parks trust fund in the city. Following promising initial results from the survey, we conducted a series of focus groups to delve further into the nuances of voter perspectives on this issue. Our findings revealed that equity in the distribution of park funds across the city was a pressing concern of voters and that they also cared about safety. While the electorate as a whole was not overly tax sensitive, undecided voters were, and promises of funding and matching from private foundations were convincing to this group. Having access to full public disclosure of how City funds were spent was also important to voters. • In 2019, LRP conducted survey research on behalf of the City of Ann Arbor (Michigan) to gauge residents’ assessment of recycling, garbage disposal, and compost collection services , levels of participation on the compost services made available by the city, and residents’ willingness to pay for additional year-long waste collection services that would cover the winter months. • LRP conducted research among Hawaii’s adult population on the issues of elder -care and family care for Caring Across Generations and the state Kapuna Caregivers Program. Our research identified gaps in the messaging used to engage Hawaii’s diverse population and to shape improved communication to eligible families. • We have worked with the Washington Regional Alcohol Program (WRAP) since 2015, conducting focus groups and bi-annual surveys among young men ages 21-35 across Virginia to measure campaign recall for three anti-drunk driving campaigns designed for the Virginia DMV and NHTSA. The research has helped the regional governmental body launch a campaign to positively shift attitudes around drunk driving through measuring campaign recall and other key questions over time among this subset of the population. • We worked in the City of Portland (Oregon) to pass a transportation funding measure. The measure raised the gas tax in the city for four years, and it increased the heavy vehicle use tax rate, with funding directed to improving roads and transportation in the city. Our research contributed to the measure’s narrow 52% to 48% victory on Election Day. • On behalf of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry , we conducted a statewide survey among Pennsylvania voters. The survey explored views toward paid family and medical leave and specific proposals around leave and methods of payment. Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 7 • On behalf of the Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services, we conducted focus groups among HR decision makers/executives and business owners in the state not currently offering paid leave to their employees as well as a statewide online survey among HR decision makers/executives and business owners currently offering employees paid leave. The study explored views toward paid family and medical leave and specific proposals around leave and methods of payment. • On behalf of the Washington State Employment Security Department, we conducted a statewide survey among voters in the state, as well as one -on-one interviews among HR decision makers/executives and business owners. The study explored views toward paid family and medical leave and specific proposals around leave and methods of payment. We have worked with many other local and city governments across the country, including Jefferson County, Kentucky; Prince George’s County, Maryland; Columbus, Ohio; Boise, Idaho; Beaverton, Oregon; and Clackamas County, Oregon. References East Bay Regional Park District Lisa Baldinger, Legislative and Policy Management Analyst 2950 Peralta Oaks Court Oakland, CA 94605 (510)-544-2318 lbaldinger@ebparks.org Community Survey December 2024 City of Berkeley Matthai Chakko, Public Information Officer 2180 Milvia Street Berkeley, CA 94704 (510) 981-7008 mchakko@ci.berkeley.ca.us Community Surveys June 2024 Alameda Contra-Costa Transit District Nichele Laynes, Marketing and Communications Director 1600 Franklin Street Oakland, CA 94612 (510) 891-7201 nlaynes@actransit.org Rider Experience Survey and Focus Groups August 2023 D. Methodology Voter Survey: Our recommended research design will help the City of Diamond Bar accomplish its research goals. In all of our research, we are sticklers for sampling methodology to ensure the most accurate data possible. We understand that the validity of data directly relates to the quality of the sample, so we use scientific methods to assure unbiased sampling and use appropriate statistical techniques to analyze the data. Our job is to provide a sound empirical foundation for decisions to be made. If appropriate, we can apply advanced statistical techniques in our analysis, including multiple regression cluster analysis and max differential analysis. Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 8 For this project we recommend a multi-mode survey of likely voters in Diamond Bar including a combination of live telephone and text-to-online interviews. For our live telephone interviews, we use professional, trained interviewers, and we carefully monitor the calling. We use the most accurate and up -to-date data files of voters and residents, supplement our samples with additional cell phone matching, and provide optional text-to-online versions of our phone surveys to improve response rates among diverse populations and younger respondents. We will supervise the drawing of a random sample of registered voters from the most up-to-date enhanced voter files. Upon completion of the interviewing and coding of any open-ended responses, the data is downloaded from the phone bank to our secure computer network. Lake Research Partners uses a customized SPSS program to run the statistical analysis of the data, and to prepare the final cross -tabulated data. We will explore the results by different demographic categories for analysis, the range of which will be determined in consultation with the City of Diamond Bar. The original data set can be supplied to the City for further analysis. This multi-mode scientific survey of Diamond Bar voters will be designed to test community preferences, attitudes, and priorities relating to various aspects of City projects and services, willingness to enact funding to maintain or enhance City services, and support for different ballot measure options. The survey can test popularity for any specific measures or components of measures the City is considering, with the option of split sampling to assess the impact of variations in factors such as cost or scope, or to compare variations in descriptive language. It can also test the implications of the timing of revenue ballot measures. We will also ask demographic questions to provide comparative analysis of attitudes among different groups, including by gender, age, race, and different regions of the City. In order to provide strategic recommendations on when to put a revenue measure on the ballot, we recommend a sample frame of 600 likely 2028 voters that also includes a sample of at least 400 likely 2026 voters, so we can compare attitudes among the likely voter base in each election year. We will offer the survey in English, Mandarin, and Korean. We do not foresee any concerns with this methodology. Both the overall 600 sample and the 400 sub-sample size are enough to achieve a 95% confidence level and under 5% margin of error. Before drafting the survey, we generally have an immersion phase to steep ourselves in the issues and review materials the City would provide to us. We can also meet with staff to engage in a discussion about the City, the budget, the Capital Improvement Program, and the needs and revenue mechanisms that would best address current and future needs. This discussion will inform the survey instrument and our recommendations throughout our engagement as strategic consultants both before and after the survey fields. Following that, we will schedule a call with City staff to discuss the content and scope of the survey. This initial meeting is to generate ideas and set priorities for what to test in the survey. From this discussion, we then draft a questionnaire based o n your goals and needs and submit it to your team for review. After you have had time to gather your thoughts and reactions to the first draft, we will schedule another call to talk through revisions, additions, and cuts to get the questionnaire closer to the final version that will go into the field. The LRP team takes those edits, implements them, and sends a version back to your team for either final sign-off or any necessary touch-ups. We do not field a questionnaire until the City signs off on the final survey instrument. Below we provide pricing for a sample size of 600 respondents at an 18-minute survey length. Note that we can price additional design options if requested. We can also price additional tracking surveys as needed. Upon completion of the survey, we will analyze the results and deliver to you the topline results, full crosstabulations, and a final PowerPoint report. We can also deliver interim strategic messaging memos and/or presentations as needed. Our team is available for ongoing strategic consultation and presentation of findings as needed. Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 9 E. Costs Survey Pricing (N=600) Description Mode Length Price 600 likely 2028 voters in the City of Diamond Bar (sample also contains 400 likely 2026 voters) English Live Telephone Survey + Text to Online 18 minutes $45,590 Translation to Mandarin (18 minutes) $1,420 Translation to Korean (18 minutes) $1,420 N=600 Sample/Cell Match (Estimate) $3,520 Total $51,950 OPTIONAL Description Mode Length Price Oversample of 100 likely voters (racial/ethnic, regional, etc) Live Telephone Survey + Text to Online 18 minutes $8,970 Tracking survey of 600 likely voters in the City of Diamond Bar English Live Telephone Survey + Text to Online 8 minutes $29,800 Translation to Mandarin (8 minutes) $630 Translation to Korean (8 minutes) $630 N=600 Sample/Cell Match (Estimate) $3,520 Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 10 Research Design: LRP Staff Title Deliverables Hourly Rate # of Hours Total David Mermin Project Manager Survey (in all languages offered), toplines, crosstabs, raw data, and topline memo $300 30 $9,000 Emma Scotty Senior Analyst $175 35 $6,125 Connor Olio Analyst $125 30 $3,750 Steven Timberman Field Director $150 10 $1,500 Gretchen Pfau Data Programmer $150 10 $1,500 Derek Brizendine CFO $200 5 $1,000 Subtotal Staff $22,875 Other Direct Costs Telephone Calling House (KGS) $22,715 Estimated Sample/Cell Matching $3,520 Translation $2,840 Subtotal Costs $29,075 Total $51,950 Survey prices are as inclusive as possible and include questionnaire development, interviewing, data entry, programming, analysis and presentation of findings, and ongoing strategic consultation . The only additional charges are for sample and cell phone matching costs , translation fees and any project-related travel. Travel for in-person meetings would be for one person (Partner David Mermin) from the Bay Area, billed at cost. All remote meetings and presentations are included in the budget. There is a one-time administrative fee equal to 2% of the total research budget in lieu of recovery of direct out -of-pocket costs to cover communication, express mail, and printing charges. For the proposed design, the 2% admin fee would be $1,040. Research Timeline We are prepared to begin work on this project immediately upon the approval of the contract , but we can also discuss when it would be most strategically useful to conduct the survey. Below is a sample timeline for the survey if a contract is approved in mid-March. Telephone Survey Description Date Kickoff meeting to discuss budget, needs, and potential revenue measures Week of March 24 Initial baseline questionnaire call Week of April 7 Initial baseline draft survey delivered; call to revise questionnaire Week of April 14 Survey finalized, programmed, tested, and launched Week of April 21 Topline findings and crosstabs delivered; topline presentation from team Week of May 5 Full survey report delivered with presentation from LRP Week of May 19 Research Proposal: City of Diamond Bar, February 2025 11 Conclusion We are excited for the opportunity to work with your team and look forward to further discussing our partnership and our approach. We agree to the City’s Consulting Services Agreement terms and conditions and are happy to respond to any questions or comments on this proposal. Of course, the above research design is a recommendation and can be amended or revised depending on your budget and needs. Please feel free to contact David Mermin (dmermin@lakeresearch.com) at (510) 379-5180 with any questions or feedback on this proposal.