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True North Research - Diamond Bar Public Opinion Polling Proposal '25 v1T (1)
True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BARi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .TABLE OF CONTENTSTable of Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iCover Letter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1What Sets True North Apart? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1Project Team . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Project Organization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Resumes & Roles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Project Manager. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Principal Researcher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Firm Experience & References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Company Specifics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5Personal vs. Firm-Level Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5Revenue Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5City Planning & Priority Surveys. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5True North’s Municipal Clients. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6Methodology & Understanding. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Communication. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Questionnaire Design. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Pre-Test, Programing & Translation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Sampling Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Sample Size & Split-Sampling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13Maximum Margin of Error due to Sampling in Diamond Bar (95% Confidence Level) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Three Methods of Recruiting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Mixed-Method Data Collection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Telephone Interviewing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Data Processing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Topline Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Survey Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Advanced Voter Behavior Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Data Visualization Dashboard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Presentation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Ongoing Strategic Advice & Consulting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Project Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Availability & Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Cost, Insurance & Agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18Insurance Certification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18Consulting Services Agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .COVER LETTERTrue North Research (True North) is pleased to present this proposal toprovide voter opinion research and revenue measure consulting servicesto the City of Diamond Bar (City). Based on the RFP, as well as ourexperience conducting hundreds of similar revenue measure studies forpublic agencies throughout California, True North understands that theCity is interested in using the survey to produce an unbiased, statisticallyreliable evaluation of voters' service/budget priorities, profile voters’interest in supporting a local revenue measure to fund parks, facilities,and infrastructure projects, and identify how to structure a measure sothat it is consistent with the electorate’s priorities and sensitivities. Inshort, the goal is to assess the feasibility of placing a revenue measure ona future ballot and—if feasible—determine how best to package ameasure for voter approval, including determining the optimal financialmechanism (sales tax, general obligation bond, or other), tax rate, andelection timing.Assuming the survey results are promising and the City chooses to moveforward with a measure, True North is also prepared to assist DiamondBar with preparing the revenue measure, as well as developing and imple-menting a successful public education campaign.CHALLENGES To successfully meet the challenges of the proposedproject, the City will need a consultant that has a diverse set of skills andexperience. First and foremost, the consultant should possess a highlysophisticated understanding of survey research methodology to ensurethat the resulting data are valid and reliable measures of voters' opinions,and that the results are representative of the individuals who mayultimately decide the fate of the revenue measure. This expertise shouldextend to all aspects of conducting surveys including sampling design,questionnaire design, data collection, data processing, weighting, statis-tical analysis, and presentation. In addition to statistical know-how, thisstudy further requires a consultant that has ample experience workingwith public agencies translating positive survey results into effectivepublic information campaigns and successful revenue measures. And, ofcourse, the consultant must have the availability and a commitment towork closely with the City of Diamond Bar throughout the pre-electoralcycle.WHAT SETS TRUE NORTH APART? True North has theexpertise, experience, resources, and dedication needed to successfullyovercome the challenges of the proposed study. Although we providemore details in the body of this proposal, we thought it would be helpfulto highlight at the outset what distinguishes True North from otherresearch firms.HIGHEST SUCCESS RATE FOR REVENUE MEASURES IN CA Creating revenue measures that are ultimately approved by thenecessary percentage of voters is difficult, especially in the State ofCalifornia. Successful measures require insightful research and sound,strategic advice. One testimony to the accuracy of our research and thereliability of our strategic advice is that we have the highest verifiablesuccess rate in the State of California for revenue measures over the pastdecade (94%), and a 100% success rate in seven of the past ten electioncycles. To date, we have helped our clients raise over $42 billion in voter-approved revenue measures, including more than $7 billion in the pastyear alone (2024) and billions for parks, trails, open space, communityfacilities, and infrastructure.HOW WE MANAGE YOUR STUDY Most research firms (and all of thelarger firms) rely heavily on delegation to manage their work flow.Although they may send the Principals to the interview, the unfortunatereality is that once they ‘win’ a project the actual research tasks—design,data processing, data analysis, report writing, presentation building—arepromptly delegated to lower-level staff.At True North, we follow a very different model for managing yourproject. We believe the best approach to conducting your study is to havethe person in our organization with the most expertise and experienceroll-up his sleeves and actually do the work. At True North, who you see iswho you get. True North’s President (Dr. McLarney) will personallyperform about 70% of the research tasks for the proposed survey.WE KNOW DIAMOND BAR—AND YOU KNOW US One of theadvantages of selecting True North for this study is that we were theCity’s chosen research partner for the 2023 Community Opinion Survey.We are familiar with the City, have a positive working relationship with True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . city staff, and have a good understanding of Diamond Bar’s highstandards for research based on our prior work with the City.Although we are familiar with the City of Diamond Bar, the reverse is alsotrue—the City is familiar with True North. You know how we operate,have experienced our dedication to being responsive to your needs, andhave witnessed the careful attention we pay to all aspects of the researchprocess. We value our relationship with the City of Diamond Bar and arecommitted to maintaining our status as a preferred partner through hardwork, first-rate customer service, and delivering exceptional qualityresearch.VALUE-ADDED SERVICES We go the extra mile for our clients byproviding value-added research, project management, and modelingservices that most firms do not. In addition to the standard deliverables(survey report & crosstabulations), we provide additional servicesincluding advanced statistical modeling and interactive data visual-ization dashboards. These value-added services will ensure that the Cityreceives the most accurate and insightful research, and are very helpful indeveloping effective strategies for building and sustaining communitysupport for a measure.The True North team is excited to partner with the City of Diamond Bar onthis important survey. We think that you will find our qualifications, ourattention to client service, and our interest in this study to be excep-tional. Should you have any questions about this proposal, please do nothesitate to contact me by email at mclarney@tn-research.com or byphone at 760.632.9900. I will serve as the City’s point of contact andProject Manager throughout the entire study.Please note that we have organized this proposal according to the formatrequested in the RFP and all conditions proposed are valid for a period of180 calendar days from submittal.Sincerely,Timothy McLarney, Ph.D., PresidentTrue North Research1592 N. Coast Highway 101Encinitas, CA 92024p: 760.632.9900 mclarney@tn-research.com Timothy McLarney, Ph.D.PresidentRole: Project Manager & LeadProject Manager Day-to-Day ContactSampling Design Questionnaire DesignAnalysis Report WritingPresentations Strategic ConsultingRichard Sarles, M.S.Principal ResearcherRole: Data Science & SupportProgramming TestingData Collection Quality ControlData Processing GraphicsTelephone & Online Data CollectionTrue North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PROJECT TEAMMost research firms manage survey projects through division of labor and a lot of delegation. Althoughthe Principals may appear for the interview and for client meetings, their involvement beyond thatpoint is generally negligible. The Project Manager’s role is to be the point of contact and help designthe study, but even they only handle about 20% of the workload. The unfortunate reality is that most ofthe important research tasks—data processing, data analysis, report writing, presentation building—are delegated to junior-level staff. And the bigger the firm, the more projects they manage, the morethey rely on junior staff to get the work done.We do things differently at True North. We believe the best approach to research is to have the personwith the most experience and expertise in the firm roll up their sleeves and actually do the work. Dr.McLarney will not only serve as the Project Manager and the day-to-day contact for the City, he willpersonally perform about 70% of the research tasks including all survey design, analysis, report writing,and presentations. We have purposely kept True North as a single office, two-person research teambecause of our commitment to this project management model and the many benefits it provides toour clients.Our approach to managing projects is one of the things that makes True North unique, as every task ofyour study will be performed by a highly-trained principal with 25+ years of experience. Put anotherway: You don't need to pick up the phone to get the attention of our principals - we are there with youat every step, doing (not delegating) the research.PROJECT ORGANIZATION True North Research will serve as prime contractor at the directionof the City of Diamond Bar. As shown in the figure to the right, Dr. Timothy McLarney (President ofTrue North) will be the Project Manager for the study and will perform all key design, analysis, andreporting tasks. Richard Sarles (Principal Researcher at True North) will assist with programming,testing, data processing, quality control, and graphics production. The telephone and online interviewswill be conducted by the same high quality, professional data collection firm (Dynata) that True Northhas teamed with to complete more than 1,000 community and voter opinion surveys, including the Cityof Diamond Bar’s Community Opinion Survey in 2023.RESUMES & ROLES For the City’s reference, the following paragraphs provide additional infor-mation about Dr. McLarney’s, and Mr. Sarles’ respective roles on this project, as well as their educationand research backgrounds. Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles are committed to working with the City ofDiamond Bar for the duration of this project—there will be no staff turnover, substitutions, or changes. True North Research, Inc. © 2025 CITY OF DIAMOND BAR4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PROJECT MANAGER Timothy McLarney, Ph.D., will serve as theProject Manager for the proposed survey and will be the City’s point ofcontact on all matters related to the study. Dr. McLarney will lead alldesign, analysis, reporting and presentation tasks. Approximately 70% ofthe research tasks will be performed directly by Dr. McLarney.Dr. McLarney has more than 25 years of experience in survey method-ology, statistics, public opinion analysis, and providing data-drivenstrategic advice to public agencies. During his career, he has occupied alead role in over 1,500 research studies, including more than 500 revenuemeasure feasibility surveys. To date, Dr. McLarney’s research has led toover $42 billion in voter-approved revenue measures at the local level inCalifornia.Dr. McLarney is a nationally recognized expert in survey researchmethodology, sampling theory, weighting, and the use of statisticalmethods to generalize survey results. His research has been published inacademic journals and has earned him honors including the AndrewMellon Fellowship (Cornell University), Sage Fellowship (CornellUniversity), and the title of Visiting Scholar at the Institute of Govern-mental Studies at UC Berkeley. He has also served as an independentexpert witness in survey research methodology for California legal cases.Dr. McLarney earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in Government from CornellUniversity with an emphasis in survey methodology, sampling theory,data science, and public opinion analysis, as well as a Bachelor's degree inPolitics from UC Santa Cruz.PRINCIPAL RESEARCHER Richard Sarles, M.S., will assist Dr.McLarney with managing data collection, data processing, qualitycontrol, and graphics production. As Principal Researcher and co-founderof True North Research, Mr. Sarles has more than 25 years of expertise insurvey research and data science, specializing in database management,sampling methodology, statistical analysis, and results interpretation.Throughout his career, Mr. Sarles has proven to be exceptional in trans-forming complex data sets into actionable insights that drive strategicdecision-making. With experience spanning over 1,500 research studies,he has collaborated with local, state, and federal government agencies,Fortune 500 companies, and nonprofit organizations, delivering valuable,data-driven guidance across diverse sectors.Before co-founding True North Research, Mr. Sarles served as theAssociate Research Director at another west-coast research firm. Apublished author, his work has been cited in sociological, psychological,and industry-specific journals. Mr. Sarles holds an M.S. in ExperimentalPsychology with an emphasis in statistics from Illinois State University,where he graduated magna cum laude, as well as a B.S. in Psychologyfrom the same institution, where he achieved summa cum laude honors. True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FIRM EXPERIENCE & REFERENCESTrue North is a full-service survey research firm that is dedicated toproviding California municipalities and public agencies with a clearunderstanding of the opinions, perceptions, priorities and behaviors oftheir residents and customers. Through designing and implementingscientific surveys, focus groups and one-on-one interviews, as well asexpert interpretation of the findings, True North helps its clients to movewith confidence when making strategic decisions in a variety of areas—such as performance measurement, planning, budgeting, revenueenhancement, and developing effective public engagement/communica-tions strategies.As specialists in research methodology and the public sector, our clientsspan the full range of public agencies including cities, counties, specialdistricts, utilities, councils of government, educational institutions, stateagencies, and federal agencies. The diversity of our public sector clientelehas enabled us to perform research at the local, regional, state, national,and international levels.COMPANY SPECIFICS True North Research was co-founded in 2002 asa two-person survey consulting firm by Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles andis a certified Small Business Enterprise (SBE) and S-Corporation in goodstanding with the State of California. Although we have had many oppor-tunities to expand our business during the past 23 years, we have chosento maintain True North as a two-person research team. Dr. McLarney andMr. Sarles still manage every aspect of every True North project. We arean extremely efficient, collaborative team of two—and we have chosento keep it that way so that our clients continue to receive exceptionallyhigh quality customer service and research insights.PERSONAL VS. FIRM-LEVEL EXPERIENCE Before relayingour experience in more detail, we feel it is important to note thedifference between personal experience and firm-level experience. It iscommon for research firms to provide a long list of projects in theirproposals in an effort to demonstrate that they are both well-qualifiedand highly experienced in conducting surveys of this type. The reality,however, is that this firm-level experience is often a game of smoke-and-mirrors. What they don’t tell you is that their list of projects was managedby dozens of different project managers over many years, many of whomno longer work for the firm and only one of whom will be assigned to yourproject (along with lower-level support staff).The bottom line is that it doesn’t matter how many projects or clients afirm has worked with over the years. Nor does the experience of thePrincipals or others at the firm matter if they aren’t going to be the onesrolling-up their sleeves to work on your study. What matters is theexperience and expertise of the specific individuals who will be workingdirectly on your project and handling each of the key research tasks.For this reason, we take a different approach. The experience discussedthroughout this proposal—and the projects referenced below—are thepersonal experience of the individuals who will be working on all aspectsof the study for the City of Diamond Bar: Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles. Weencourage the City to take this difference into account when reviewingfirms and proposals.REVENUE MEASURES Creating revenue measures that areultimately approved by the necessary percentage of voters is difficult,especially in the State of California. Successful measures requireinsightful research and sound, strategic advice. One testimony to theaccuracy of our research and the reliability of our strategic advice is thatwe have the highest verifiable success rate in the State of California forrevenue measures over the past decade (94%), and a 100% success rate inseven of the past ten election cycles. To date, we have helped our clientsraise over $42 billion in voter-approved revenue measures, includingmore than $7 billion in the past year alone (2024) and billions for parks,trails, open space, community facilities, and infrastructure. Ourexperience includes all types of revenue measures including general andspecial sales taxes (transactions & use taxes), parcel taxes, bonds,transient occupancy taxes, utility users taxes, real estate transfer taxes,business licence taxes, benefit assessments, and property-related fees.CITY PLANNING & PRIORITY SURVEYS During their careers,Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles have designed and conducted more than 400surveys for California municipalities to help them identify communitypriorities with respect to city services and facilities, as well as identifyhow best to plan for and invest in service, facility, and infrastructureimprovements. On the next page is a list of the California municipalities True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR6. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .for which Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles have personally designed and conducted community and voter surveys. It’s worthnothing that many of these municipalities have selected True North as their research partner for multiple surveys, withrepeated engagements spanning more than two decades. Additional information and references begin on the next page.TRUE NORTH’S MUNICIPAL CLIENTS Agoura Hills CypressLake Elsinore RocklinAlhambra Dana Point Lake Forest San AnselmoAliso Viejo Del Mar Lathrop San CarlosAnaheim Diamond Bar Lemon Grove San ClementeApple Valley East Palo Alto Lompoc San DiegoArroyo Grande Eastvale Long Beach San DimasAtascadero El Cajon Los Angeles San GabrielAtherton Encinitas Los Gatos San JoseAzusa Escondido Madera San Luis ObispoBaldwin Park Folsom Malibu San MarcosBanning Fontana Manhattan Beach San MarinoBarstow Fremont Menifee San MateoBelvedere Gilroy Mission Viejo Santa BarbaraBeverly Hills Glendale Modesto Santa ClaritaBig Bear Lake Glendora Moorpark Santa MonicaBrea Goleta Murrieta Signal HillBuellton Grand Terrace Norwalk Solana BeachBuena Park Half Moon Bay Oceanside South Lake TahoeBurbank Hemet Oxnard South PasadenaCampbell Hesperia Palmdale TemeculaCarlsbad Huntington Beach Petaluma Thousand OaksCerritos Indian Wells Pico Rivera TruckeeChino Irvine Placentia UplandChula Vista Kerman Port Hueneme VenturaClaremont La Canada-Flintridge Rancho Cucamonga WatsonvilleClayton La Mesa Rancho Palos Verdes West HollywoodCommerce La Palma Rancho Santa Margarita Westlake VillageCoronado La Verne Redlands WhittierCosta Mesa Laguna Beach Redondo Beach Yorba LindaCudahy Laguna Niguel Riverside Yucca Valley True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR7. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Community Satisfaction, Planning & Revenue Measure Surveys. Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles havedesigned and conducted 14 surveys for the City of Manhattan Beach since 1999, including multipleresident satisfaction surveys, a survey to help guide the City’s Community Facilities Plan, and revenuemeasure feasibility surveys. Most recently, True North completed a feasibility survey for a stormwaterrevenue measure (successful in 2024) and a sales tax feasibility survey (successful on the November 2024ballot). Contact: Steve Charelian, City Councilmember/former Director of Finance, 1400 Highland Ave,Manhattan Beach, CA 90266: 310.802.5053; scharelian@manhattanbeach.gov.Planning & Revenue Measure Feasibility Surveys. True North assisted the City of San Marcos with asurvey to inform the General Plan Update, a survey of local businesses, and voter research that led to thesuccessful passage of a local sales tax measure in 2024. Contact: Michelle Bender, City Manager. 1 CivicCenter Drive, San Marcos, CA, 92069: 760.744.1050; mbender@san-marcos.net.Community Satisfaction, Land Use Planning & Revenue Measure Surveys. True North has designedseven surveys for the City of San Mateo in recent years to gauge satisfaction with municipal services andinform the City’s General Plan Update (2020, 2022, 2024 & 2025), gauge the feasibility of increasing thetransient occupancy tax (successful in 2020), and assess the feasibility of increasing the City’s real propertytransfer tax (successful on November 2022 ballot). Contact: Alex Khojikian, City Manager. 330 W. 20thAve., San Mateo CA 94403: 650.522.7000; akhojikian@cityofsanmateo.org.Community Satisfaction & Revenue Measure Feasibility Surveys. True North has designed andconducted seven community priorities and satisfaction surveys for the City of La Mesa using a largesample of 800 residents to allow for analysis within geographic subregions of the City, as well as a revenuemeasure feasibility survey that led to a successful sales tax measure on the November 2024 ballot. Contact:Lyn Dedmon, Assistant to the City Manager. 8130 Allison Avenue, La Mesa CA 91942. 619.667.1339;ldedmon@cityoflamesa.us.Community Priorities & Revenue Measure Feasibility Surveys. True North assisted the City of ChulaVista with community priority surveys, revenue measure feasibility research, , and strategic advice that ledto the successful passage of a sales tax measure on the November 2016 ballot, a second sales tax on theNovember 2018 ballot, a cannabis measure in 2018, and a renewal sales tax in 2024. Contact: MariaKachadoorian, City Manager. 276 Fourth Avenue, Chula Vista CA, 91910: 619.691.5031.Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey. True North assisted the City of Redlands with baseline and trackingsurveys and strategic advice that led to the successful passage of a sales tax to fund general city services in2020. Contact: Danielle Garcia, Director of Management Services. 35 Cajon Street, Suite 15B, Redlands CA92373. 909.798.7544; dgarcia@cityofredlands.org. True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Revenue Measure Feasibility Surveys. True North assisted the City of Oceanside with survey research toidentify community opinions and priorities with respect to city services and provided strategic advice andcommunications that led to the successful passage of a sales tax to fund general city services in 2018 and2024. Contact: Michael Gossman, Assistant City Manager. 300 North Coast Hwy, Oceanside, CA 92054:760.435.3058; mgossman@oceansideca.org.Community Satisfaction, Planning & Revenue Measure Feasibility Surveys. Dr. McLarney and Mr.Sarles have personally designed and conducted five surveys for the City of Murrieta, including threecommunity satisfaction surveys (most recent 2023), a planning survey for parks and recreation, and arevenue measure feasibility survey that led to the successful passage of a permanent 1% sales tax for cityservices. Contact: Kristen Crane, Assistant City Manager. 1 Town Square, Murrieta CA 92562: 951.461.6014;kcrane@murrietaca.gov.Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey. True North assisted the City of Solana Beach with baseline voterresearch and strategic advice that led to the successful passage of a sales tax to fund general city services in2022. Contact: Gregory Wade, City Manager. 635 S. Highway 101, Solana Beach, CA 92075. (858) 720-2431;gwade@cosb.org.Community Satisfaction, Policy, & Revenue Measure Feasibility Surveys. True North has assisted theTown of Yucca Valley with six surveys, including community satisfaction surveys in 2017, 2019, 2021, and2023 that measured/tracked residents’ priorities and satisfaction with town services and policy issues, aswell as revenue measure feasibility surveys that led to the successful passage of a transient occupancy tax(TOT) in 2022 and two sales tax measures on the November 2024 ballot. Contact: Curtis Yakimow, TownManager. 57090 Twentynine Palms Highway, Yucca Valley, CA 92284: 760.369.7207; cyakimow@yucca-valley.org.Revenue Measure Feasibility & Planning Surveys. True North has designed and conducted nine surveysfor the Town of Truckee that gauged community priorities and willingness to fund essential communityservices. The surveys have led to successful sales tax measures for transportation infrastructure (2008),trails (2013 & 2022), and general town services (2024), as well as a successful transient occupancy tax foraffordable housing (2020). Contact: Jen Callaway, Town Manager. 10183 Truckee Airport Road, Truckee, CA96161: 530.582.7700; jcallaway@townoftruckee.com.Community Satisfaction & Revenue Measure Feasibility Surveys. True North designed and conductedthe City of Lake Elsinore’s statistically reliable citizen satisfaction surveys in 2016 and 2023, as well asbaseline and tracking surveys that led to the successful passage of a local sales tax measure in 2020.Contact: Jason Simpson, City Manager, 130 South Main Street, Lake Elsinore CA 92530: 951.674.3124 ext204; jsimpson@lake-elsinore.org. True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey. True North assisted the City of Pismo Beach with a revenue mea-sure feasibility survey and provided strategic advice that led to the successful passage of a transactionsand use tax (sales tax) to fund general city services in 2024, with a focus on funding streets and infrastruc-ture, parks, and public facilities, as well as public safety including police, fire-protection, and emergencyservices. Contact: Jorge Garcia, City Manager. 760 Mattie Road, Pismo Beach, CA 93449: 805.773.7007;jgarcia@pismobeach.org.Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey. True North provided voter opinion research and strategic advice tothe City of Atascadero in 2020 that led to the successful passage of a local sales tax measure on the Novem-ber 2020 ballot. The measure focused on public safety including police, fire protection, paramedics, and911 emergency response, as well as the maintenance of city streets, infrastructure, parks and public facili-ties. Contact: Lara Christensen, Deputy City Manager. Phone: 805.470.3400. lchristensen@atas-cadero.org.Revenue Measure Feasibility Surveys. True North designed and conducted two surveys for the City ofArroyo Grande to gauge voters’ priorities with respect to city services and their willingness to support alocal sales tax measure to provide additional funding. The general sales tax measure was approved byvoters on the November 2024 ballot. Contact: Jessica Matson, Director of Legislative & InformationServices/City Clerk. 300 E Branch Street, Arroyo Grande, CA 93420: 805.473.5418; jmatson@arroyo-grande.org.Revenue Measure Feasibility Surveys. True North provided Walnut Valley USD with baseline andtracking research that led to the successfull passage (64% approval) of a $153 million bond on theNovember 2016 ballot. Contact: Dr. Robert Taylor, Superintendent. 880 S. Lemon Ave., Walnut, CA 91789:909.595.1261; rtaylor@wvusd.k12.ca.us. Sampling Stratified & clustered random sample of 600+ likely voters in Diamond Bar Stratified by location, age, party IDMargin of Error +/- 4% at the 95% confidence levelRecruiting (x3) Three (3) methods of recruiting Personalized email invitations, text invitations & telephone callsData Collection (x2) Online via secure, PIN-protected survey website that scales to device Telephone interviews led by experienced, professional interviewers English, Korean & Chinese LanguagesEnsures representative sample of voters in Diamond Bar who are likely to participate in election(s) of interestSurvey results will meet academic standard for statistical reliabilityMaximizes participation, minimizes response bias, & effective for contacting traditionally hard-to-reach subgroupsRespondents have the flexibility to participate in the survey online or by telephone in their preferred languageQuestionnaireStatistically valid, reliable measures of voters opinions on topics of interest to the City of Diamond Bar 15-17 minutes in length Custom-created to match Citys research interests & data needs Analytics Question-by-question descriptive statistics & summary graphics Subgroup analyses & segmentation Modeling & data dashboardsData is thoroughly analyzed overall and by voter subgroups to determine if a revenue measure is feasible and how best to structure a measure for voter approvalMethodology OverviewTrue North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . METHODOLOGY & UNDERSTANDINGIf the ultimate goal of this study is to enable the City of Diamond Bar tomake sound, strategic decisions based upon the data that is collected, it iscritical that the data be collected according to rigorous methodologicalstandards. Indeed, although it may be easy to conduct a 'survey', it is quitechallenging to design and implement a survey that A) produces valid andreliable measures of the opinions and behaviors of interest, and B) producesdata that is representative of the population of voters that is the focus of astudy. Only by satisfying each of these conditions will the proposed studyproduce data that is trustworthy and thus a sound basis for makingdecisions.Meeting the aforementioned conditions has become more difficult inrecent years. Much has changed in terms of how voters receive information,the accessibility of voters through traditional recruiting methods, and theirwillingness to participate in community surveys. Caller-ID, SPAM filters,habitual call-screening, and busy lifestyles have made it more difficult toreach respondents in general, leading to lower response rates and greaterresponse bias when relying on just one or two recruiting methods. In orderto continue producing statistically reliable measures of their voters’opinions, priorities and behaviors, the research methodologies that citiesemploy for revenue measure surveys must adapt to these new challenges. The methodology that we recommend in this section is designed to do justthat—adapt to these challenges by employing innovative techniques thatwill ensure statistically reliable results. As highlighted in the figure to theright and discussed in greater detail later in this section, we propose to use astratified & clustered random sampling methodology that ensures arepresentative sample of Diamond Bar voters who are likely to participate inthe elections of interest (e.g., special election 2025, June 2026 primary, and/or November 2026). We also recommend using a three-pronged recruitingstrategy of email invitations, text invitations, and telephone calls to recruitparticipation in the survey and a mixed-method data collection method-ology that allows sampled respondents the flexibility of participating bytelephone or online at a password protected web site in their preferredlanguage (English, Korean, or Chinese). Designed, tested and refined byTrue North over the past 15 years, our recommended survey approach hasproven to increase participation rates, reduce response bias, better engagetraditionally hard-to-reach subgroups, and increase the overall accuracy andreliability of revenue measure surveys. True North Research, Inc. © 2025 CITY OF DIAMOND BAR11. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The following sections describe the main elements of the proposedmethodology, which includes several value-added methodological andproject management features likely not found in the proposals submittedby other firms.COMMUNICATION At the outset of the survey, True North recom-mends having a kick-off meeting with all individuals who will be activelyinvolved in the study (or will be an important stakeholder) in attendance.The kick-off meeting is a great forum for talking about the City’s researchinterests and revenue needs, as well as expectations and concerns for theupcoming study and deliverables. The meeting will also provide anopportunity for Dr. McLarney to clarify any questions about the proposedmethodology, ask questions of city staff, and identify changes to themethodology (as proposed) that may better serve the City’s interests. Inshort, the purpose of the kick-off meeting is to make sure that everyone isin agreement about the details of the study, identify areas that needfurther clarification, share documents and materials, and establish amore detailed work plan for the project. After the kick-off meeting, Dr. McLarney will review the City’s culture,current budget, Capital Improvement Program, and infrastructure needsas they relate to the proposed measure, as well as outline for the City thepros and cons of different financial mechanisms (sales tax, bond, parceltax, assessment, etc.) and election dates. Dr. McLarney will also keep inregular contact with the Project Manager identified by the City throughtelephone, email, video conferences, and in-person meetings.QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN True North has developed a provenframework for the design of revenue measure survey instruments thatcaptures the pieces of information needed for estimating the feasibilityof a measure and, if feasible, determining how best to package themeasure for success. The instrument will identify the issues that votersfeel are most important, how funding parks, facilities and infrastructureranks next to other important issues, baseline (uninformed) support for ameasure, the tax rate that voters will support, the projects and servicesthat voters are most interested in funding, the information items thatshape voter support for a measure, how voter support varies by financialmechanism, as well as how support for a measure may change oncevoters are exposed to the types of information and arguments they willlikely encounter during the election cycle. Collectively, this informationwill allow the team to determine if the City should move forward with arevenue measure and, if so, the best way to structure a measure for voterapproval.True North will lead the questionnaire design and revision process in closeconsultation with City of Diamond Bar staff. Throughout the designprocess, we are careful to develop a questionnaire that covers the topicsof interest and avoids the many possible sources of systematicmeasurement error, including position-order effects, wording effects,response-category effects, scaling effects and priming.PRE-TEST, PROGRAMING & TRANSLATION Once the Cityhas approved the draft survey instrument, it will be pre-tested internallyand with at least 20 Diamond Bar voters prior to actually fielding thesurvey to ensure that respondents can easily understand the point of eachquestion, the response options match what respondents want to answer,the skip patterns and logic are correct, etc. After any final adjustmentsare made in consultation with the City, the instrument will be profes-sionally translated (Chinese and Korean) and programmed for bothtelephone (CATI) and online versions.SAMPLING METHODOLOGY In revenue measure research, thefirst step is to identify the population of individuals who will vote on themeasure, then survey a representative sub-sample of these individuals.The appropriate set of individuals to be included in the sample thus variesdepending on a number of factors. The expected election date, forexample, is one factor that has a large influence on voter turnout and theprofile of participating voters.As shown in the table on the next page, the demographic and politicalprofile of the City of Diamond Bar electorate changes significantly asturnout shrinks from the total registered electorate to the likelyNovember 2026, likely June 2026, and likely special election 2025electorates. When compared to the total registered electorate, thepercentage of voters who are registered partisans (Democrat or Repub-lican) increases as the electorate gets smaller, as does the voting powerof seniors, those who registered to vote in the City prior to June 2012, dualpartisan households, and home owners. True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR12. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .TOTAL 34444 % 20915 % 13767 % 10027 %PartyDEM 12841 37% 8383 40% 5675 41% 4214 42%REP 9554 28% 6607 32% 4782 35% 3723 37%IND 11524 33% 5668 27% 3175 23% 1993 20%Minor Party Liberal 282 1% 127 1% 70 1% 55 1%Minor Party Conservative 243 1% 130 1% 65 0% 42 0%GenderFEMALE 16125 47% 10238 49% 6751 49% 4968 50%MALE 15589 45% 9432 45% 6425 47% 4663 47%GENDER UNK 2730 8% 1245 6% 591 4% 396 4%AgeAGE 18-29 5301 15% 2383 11% 1080 8% 669 7%AGE 30-39 5425 16% 2747 13% 1432 10% 872 9%AGE 40-49 4916 14% 2808 13% 1513 11% 971 10%AGE 50-64 8300 24% 5554 27% 3686 27% 2566 26%65+ OR NO AGE 10502 30% 7423 35% 6056 44% 4949 49%Registration DateREG BEFORE 6/12 17647 51% 12827 61% 9831 71% 7548 75%REG 6/12 TO 6/16 2587 8% 1567 7% 968 7% 636 6%REG 6/16 TO 11/20 8822 26% 4989 24% 2447 18% 1452 14%NEW REG AFTER 11/20 5388 16% 1532 7% 521 4% 391 4%Ethnicity (surname)AFRICAN-AMERICAN 717 2% 514 2% 416 3% 311 3%ASIAN (COMPOSITE) 15392 45% 8361 40% 4997 36% 3355 33%LATINO 6584 19% 4244 20% 2719 20% 2002 20%NOT (AF-AM,ASIAN OR LATINO) 11751 34% 7796 37% 5635 41% 4359 43%Household Party Type1 Democrat HH 1716 5% 997 5% 661 5% 517 5%2+ PURE Democrat HH 4532 13% 3396 16% 2554 19% 1984 20%1 Republican HH 1399 4% 906 4% 615 4% 483 5%2+ PURE Republican HH 3168 9% 2462 12% 1955 14% 1611 16%DEM/MPL/NP HH (Mixed Liberal) 7353 21% 4226 20% 2583 19% 1725 17%REP/MPC/NP HH (Mixed Conservative) 4673 14% 2750 13% 1777 13% 1259 13%DEM & REP MIXED HH 6557 19% 3781 18% 2355 17% 1656 17%NP/OTHER HH 5046 15% 2397 11% 1267 9% 792 8%Home Onwership StatusHOMEOWNER 23212 67% 15368 73% 10809 79% 8016 80%RENTER 11232 33% 5547 27% 2958 21% 2011 20%Total Registered Likely Nov 2026 Likely March 2026 Likely Special 2025 True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR13. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . To help the City understand how turnout may shape voter support for arevenue measure in Diamond Bar, we recommend creating a nestedsample (like layers in an onion) for the survey with the November 2026,June 2026, and special election 2025 electorates represented. This willenable us to reliably estimate support in high-, moderate-, and low-turnout scenarios, and understand how voting propensity is related tosupport for the measure. Once the appropriate universe of voters isselected, the universe will be stratified by demographic characteristicsthat are known to influence voting behavior—including partisan affili-ation, household party composition, age, gender, and geographicprecincts. Voters will then be randomly selected into clusters within theappropriate strata. A stratified and clustered sampling method willensure that the composition of the sample accurately reflects the compo-sition of voters in Diamond Bar’s electorates of interest.SAMPLE SIZE & SPLIT-SAMPLING By using a stratified andclustered random sampling design, True North will ensure that thesample is representative of likely voters in Diamond Bar. The results ofthe survey can then be used to estimate the opinions of all likely voters inthe city. Because not all voters will participate in the survey, however, theresults will have what is known as a statistical margin of error due tosampling. The margin of error refers to the difference between what isfound from the sample of voters and what would have been found had alllikely voters in the city been surveyed.This is where sample size becomes important. The larger the sample, allother things being equal, the smaller the margin of error and the moreconfidence one can have that the survey results accurately reflect allvoters in the city. To provide the City with a sense for how the statisticalmargin of error is related to sample size, the figure on the next page plotsthe relationship between sample size and the maximum statisticalmargin of error for the proposed survey.As shown in the figure, a sample size of 400 would allow the survey tomeet the +/- 5% margin of error at the 95% confidence level stated in theRFP. However, recognizing that creating successful strategies requireshaving reliable data for voters overall as well as within subgroups of voters(e.g., by partisan affiliation, age, geographic subareas, etc.) and thatstatistical reliability for subgroup analyses is determined by the subgroupsample size, we recommend an overall sample size of at least 600 inter-views. A sample of this size will produce highly results with a maximumstatistical margin of error due to sampling of +/- 4% at the 95% level ofconfidence for voters overall, and will also allow for reliable subgroupcomparisons. A larger sample size is also recommended given the City’s interest inexploring multiple financing mechanisms (sales tax and bond). Researchhas consistently demonstrated that asking a respondent about multiplepotential revenue measures (e.g., sales tax and bond) will lead to artifi-cially low estimates of support for whichever measure is presentedsecond (or third) during the interview. Randomizing the order themeasures are presented to a respondent is not a solution to the problem,as each measure will be in the second or third place position for at leasthalf of the interviews. To obtain a clean read on support for the alter-native measures the City is considering, we recommend a split-sampleapproach in which one-half of the sample will receive a sales tax measure True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR14. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .and one-half the alternative measure (bond). This will allow for statistically reliable, apples-to-apples comparisons ofsupport for the respective measures while avoiding the source of bias noted above. To enable a split-sample approach,the sample size must be larger (600) than what is required to test a single financial mechanism (400), as the margin oferror will be based on the sample size for each split (300).MAXIMUM MARGIN OF ERROR DUE TO SAMPLING IN DIAMOND BAR (95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL) THREE METHODS OF RECRUITING Once individuals have been selected for the sample, they will be recruitedto participate in the survey via email, text, and telephone calls. The email and text invitations will include a uniquehyperlink for each respondent to ensure that only Diamond Bar voters are able to take the survey and limit the number ofcompleted interviews per voter to one. Using three recruiting methods in combination (emailed invitations, text invita-tions, and telephone calls) allows us to reach a substantially higher percentage of voters when compared to using onlyone or two recruiting methods, and has proven to be particularly effective at engaging traditionally hard-to-reachsubgroups.MIXED-METHOD DATA COLLECTION The reliability of survey results depends, in part, on having a highparticipation rate. One of the most productive ways of encouraging participation (and minimizing response bias) in asurvey is to make it as convenient as possible for an individual to participate. Although some individuals find it mostconvenient to participate via telephone, others may have responsibilities and schedules that are simply not conducive tospending 15 to 17 minutes on the phone at a particular time. For this reason, we recommend a mixed-method design thatwill allow respondents maximum flexibility in choosing when and how they participate in the study. 400 Respondents ± 4.9%600 Respondents ± 3.9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600Sample Size (Number of Respondents)Margin of Error True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR15. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The mixed-method approach involves allowing respondents the option toparticipate in the survey by telephone or online through a secure,password protected web-based application designed and hosted by TrueNorth. Respondents can access the online survey from a computer, tablet,or smart phone and the screen will scale accordingly. By providingrespondents with flexibility as to when and how they participate in thesurvey, a mixed-method approach (especially when combined with threerecruiting methods) will deliver higher participation rates, minimizeresponse bias, and ultimately deliver more reliable results whencompared to using fewer data collection methods.TELEPHONE INTERVIEWING Quality telephone interviewing will be animportant element of the proposed survey. Using a ‘bargain’ phonefacility is rarely a bargain, as the integrity of the data and the accuracy ofthe results depends on the knowledge, experience and professionalism ofthe interviewers and supervisors. In the end, it is critical that the researchteam and the City can trust the data that were collected. For this reason,True North will team with Dynata, a professional interviewing companythat has partnered with Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles on more than 1,000community and voter survey projects in the past and has a proven track-record of professional interviewers, quality data collection, and compet-itive pricing. Interviewing for a voter survey is typically conducted in the evenings(5:30PM to 9:00PM PST) during weekdays, and 10:00AM to 6:00PM onweekends. True North works closely with Dynata to manage qualitycontrol procedures during data collection, which will include a trainingsession with interviewers and supervisors to ensure that telephone inter-viewers understand the purpose of all of the questions in the survey,thoroughly testing the CATI and web programs prior to fielding, activeand remote supervisor monitoring of interviews, quality control checks ona random selection of interviews to identify any discrepancies that mayoccur (and need adjusting), and daily monitoring of the sample character-istics to ensure that data collection is adhering to the sampling plan.DATA PROCESSING Once the interviewing is complete, TrueNorth will process the data. This consists of checking the data for errorsor inconsistencies, coding and recoding responses, and preparingfrequency analyses and cross-tabulations. If strategic oversampling isused during the sampling stage, True North will adjust for the oversam- True North Research, Inc. © 2025 CITY OF DIAMOND BAR16. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pling via a statistical procedure known as weighting to ensure represen-tative results.TOPLINE SUMMARY Once the data processing is complete, theteam will analyze the results and prepare an initial topline summary,which consists of the percentage responses for each question asked in thesurvey. Although the topline summary represents the 'first cut' at thedata and presents the results only for respondents as a whole, the reportwill often allow the team to answer the essential questions for the study,such as does the measure have a reasonable chance to succeed?SURVEY REPORT Although the industry trend is to pop graphicsinto a Powerpoint slide deck and call it a ‘report’, we don’t subscribe tothat trend. We take the time to actually analyze the data, put the findingsinto context, and explain their meaning based upon related questions inthe survey, the City’s goals, relevant secondary information, as well as ourexperience working with public agencies on hundreds of similar revenuemeasure feasibility studies.The report we prepare for the City of Diamond Bar will include aquestion-by-question analysis of the survey findings (including overallresults and by voter subgroups), an executive summary of the keyfindings, conclusions and measure-specific recommendations, a detaileddiscussion of the methodology used to complete the study, a tabulationof all calls made during the study, a copy of the topline report, and acomplete set of crosstabulations for reference that display the resultsbroken down by various subgroups of voters. We believe that the qualityof the final report and presentation reflects directly upon the quality ofthe study as a whole as well as True North Research, so we take great carein developing a report which is thorough, insightful, free of mistakes, andpresents the information in an eye-catching, full-color display.ADVANCED VOTER BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS One of the value-added services that True North provides that other firms typically do notis to use advanced statistical modeling (regression analysis) to under-stand what factors drive voters’ behaviors and opinions with respect to ameasure. Human behavior is complex and shaped by a multitude offactors—so to understand it (and thereby gain insights that will help inpackaging the measure and public outreach for success) we need to usetools that are capable of handling that complexity. Regression analysis isone such tool that True North uses to understand the independent impactof each possible factor in shaping voters’ opinions while simultaneouslycontrolling for the possible influence of other factors. True North isunique in providing these more advanced statistical analyses and doing itwithin our standard cost structure—no additional charges apply.DATA VISUALIZATION DASHBOARD In addition to providingmore reliable, detailed information about the factors that shape voters’opinions, through our Data Visualization Dashboard we are able to putthis information at our clients’ finger-tips in a way that helps them makesound, strategic decisions throughout the pre-electoral and electoralcycles. The Dashboard is a user-friendly, interactive website that allowsour clients to view survey responses within voter subgroups based on anycombination of characteristics they find interesting—age, gender, parti-sanship, household party type, geographic subareas, voting propensity,etc. Unlike crosstabulations that are static, time-consuming to use, andoften don’t define subgroups in more than one or two dimensions, theDashboard makes it quick and easy to answer questions that are criticalto a preparing a successful measure and outreach strategies—such aswhich groups are supportive, but tax-rate sensitive? Which groups aremost responsive to positive messages, and which messages are the mostcompelling for each group? Which groups contain the most swing voters?PRESENTATION Dr. McLarney will prepare and deliver a Power-Point presentation of the survey results, conclusions, and recommenda-tions to City of Diamond Bar staff and, subsequently, to the City ofDiamond Bar City Council at a council meeting, workshop, or other venueof the City’s choosing.ONGOING STRATEGIC ADVICE & CONSULTING We willprovide a series of services after the survey is complete to help translatethe survey results into a successful measure, including strategic advice onthe optimal financial mechanism and exact wording of the 75 word ballotstatement based on a careful review of the survey results and ourexperience on similar measures, the content and structure of the Expen-diture Plan, the tax rate, as well as communications strategies includingsuggested voter subgroup targeting and messaging. Our post-surveyassistance to the City is ongoing (no time limit) and provided at noadditional cost. True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR17. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .PROJECT SCHEDULETrue North will work with the City of Diamond Bar to establish a project schedule that meets the City’s needs for thesurvey. The figure below presents a typical time line for a revenue measure survey that shows the various stages of thesurvey project, the number of days that we recommend devoting to each stage, as well as the key research tasks that arecompleted in each stage. We have the availability and resources needed to meet this time line, as well as the flexibility toadjust this schedule, as needed, to best meet the City’s needs. We can also apply this timeline to any start date the Cityprefers.AVAILABILITY & CAPACITY Unlike larger firms with 10+ employees that have heavy overhead expenses andpayroll commitments and are thus compelled to bid on every RFP in order to keep revenue flowing into the business, atTrue North we have low overhead, ample reserves, and can be very selective about the projects we pursue. For thatreason, our philosophy pertaining to potential new projects is simple: we only pursue a project if A) we are interested inthe project/client, B) we feel we are the best qualified firm for the project, and C) we already have the capacity tomanage the study comfortably given our current and projected workloads. We guarantee that we will complete thesurvey to the City’s satisfaction, on-time and on-budget.3days10 days10 days10 days10 days10 daysOngoing KickoffMeeting Background Research Share Plans & Documents Questionnaire Design, Review & Approve Pre-Test Sample Language TranslationCATI Program/Test Web Program/Test Interviewer Training Invitations Email, Text & Phone Recruiting Online Surveys Telephone Interviews Monitoring Data Processing Coding Weighting Crosstabs ToplineSummary Statistical Analysis Full Report PowerpointSummaryStaff Presentation Council Presentation Strategic AdviceProject InitiationDesignPrepare to FieldData CollectionData ProcessingAnalysis & ReportingPresentationsOngoing Strategic Consulting True North Research, Inc. © 2025CITY OF DIAMOND BAR18. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .COST, INSURANCE & AGREEMENTCOSTS The following table presents True North’s flat-fee, not-to-exceed cost proposal to design and conduct the baseline survey asdescribed in this proposal. The costs shown are inclusive—there will be noadditional charges for travel, incidentals, meetings, post-projectadvising, or any other matter. If selected as the City’s research partner forthis study, our payment terms are simple: we request full payment at theconclusion of the study. No interim or up-front payments are needed.For Diamond Bar’s convenience, we have provided cost options for aguaranteed minimum of 400 and 600 completed interviews. As noted inthe body of this proposal (see Sample Size & Split-Sampling on page 13),we recommend a larger sample size (600) to accommodate a split-sampleapproach to addressing the City’s interest in testing more than onefinancial mechanism. That said, if the City chooses to focus on a singlemechanism (e.g., sales tax) after design discussions, a sample of 400would be sufficient to meet the desired statistical reliability (+/-5%margin of error at 95% confidence level).Baseline SurveyLaborRateDesign Field Report 400+ 600+Dr. McLarney30 5 30 $193 12,545$ 12,545$ Mr. Sarles0 10 10 $152 3,040$ 3,040$ Direct CostsSample & Matching 2,080$ 3,120$ Language Translation & Programming2,150$ 2,150$ CATI & Web Programming/Hosting1,650$ 1,800$ Data Collection 7,300$ 10,200$ Total28,765$ 32,855$ Hours by TaskRandom Voter SampleChinese & Korean15-17 minute averageOnline & PhoneSample Size OptionsDescriptionWe aren’t in the habit of recommending a tracking survey at this pointbecause we have yet to conduct the baseline survey, examine the surveyresults, or advise the City on the feasibility of a potential measure andnext steps. That said, should an optional tracking survey ultimately beadvisable, the costs will a bit lower than the baseline survey (sample sizeof 400+: $27,326; sample size of 600+: $31,212).INSURANCE CERTIFICATION True North carries all of theinsurance coverages requested in the City’s Consulting ServicesAgreement in amounts that meet or exceed the specified limits. Weunderstand that having said coverage is a prerequisite for entering into anagreement with the City, as is meeting specific insurance regulations.CONSULTING SERVICES AGREEMENT We have reviewed theConsulting Services Agreement and certify that we are comfortable withthe terms and conditions. With respect to Section 9 (Indemnification),we request that the City consider altering the language so that it isspecific to negligent or wrongful acts, errors or omissions of Consultant,its agents, employees, and subcontractors. In other words, True NorthResearch will indemnify the City in the event that we make a mistake, butindemnification should not extend to circumstances in which True Northperforms appropriately and as directed under the contract.