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HomeMy WebLinkAboutProbolsky Research - City of Diamond Bar - ProposalCity of Diamond Bar Proposal for: Public Opinion Polling Services Prepared for: Alex Batres, Management Analyst Opinion Research on Elections & Public Policy February 24, 2025 PROBOLSKY RESEARCH 23 Corporate Plaza Drive Suite 150 Newport Beach CA 92660 Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270 Thank you for the opportunity to offer our research services to the City of Diamond Bar. We look forward to conducting voter research, evaluating the level of support for potential revenue mechanisms for parks, facilities, and infrastructure projects, and providing insights into voter sentiment and key messaging to guide the City’s approach. We have acted as a pollster and strategic advisor on thousands of city voter research projects. We specialize in identifying community priorities, testing funding mechanisms, and analyzing voter sentiment to inform successful revenue strategies. Our methodological approach will achieve an inclusive representation of the City’s voters who are likely to vote in upcoming elections. We are a team of communication, data analytics, economics, organizational leadership, political campaign, and public policy experts. Having these talents under one roof means that we take a 360-degree approach. We achieved 100% accuracy and a win rate in 2024. We do not rely solely on our academic credentials, our differentiator is that we have run and won campaigns. We know the City will never be advocating for a ballot measure, but having a clear understanding of voter behavior in the early stages of the research process cannot be compensated for later. We bring an understanding of diverse communities to our work. Our in-house disability and diversity advisor will help ensure the research process is sensitive to those with physical disabilities and fully inclusive for everyone. I will serve as the project manager and the City’s main point of contact. You can count on us to be available, as much as requested, for meetings and to make presentations – in- person or virtually to staff and the City Council. We will comply with all agreement and insurance requirements. We look forward to working together on this important project and helping build the roadmap to your strategic goals and priorities. Our proposal is valid for 90 days. Authorized Representative: Adam Probolsky, President Probolsky Research 23 Corporate Plaza Suite 150 Newport Beach CA 92660 adamp@probolskyresearch.com Telephone: 202-559-0270 February 24, 2025 Alex Batres City of Diamond Bar 21810 Copley Drive Diamond Bar, CA 91765 Subject: Public Opinion Polling Services Alex: 1 Sincerely, Adam Probolsky President IMPORTANT: We are the only non-partisan pollsters in California. We do not approach local ballot measures with a specific political philosophy because we know success can only be achieved with a coalition among all City voters who are likely to turnout. 100% accuracy and win rate High familiarity with Diamond Bar voters Unique mix of academic credentials and real-world campaign experience Woman- and minority-owned firm Available (on City’s schedule) for meetings and presentations President of the firm to be project manager and point of contact Science-based methodology with flexibility to accommodate the unique attributes of Diamond Bar Executive Summary 2 Project Team All Probolsky Research team members are cross-trained, and every member of our team will be intimately familiar with the City’s project details. This ensures continuity, timeliness, and quality of work product. We conduct objective research and provide impartial analysis. This organizational chart includes the diverse Probolsky Research team. The resumes of our key personnel who will be assigned to this project are below. 5 Firm Experience & References Established in 1992, Probolsky Research specializes in market and opinion research. We are a woman and minority-owned firm; we are multilingual. Probolsky Research conducts research in government, business, nonprofit, election, and association practice areas. We are traditional pollsters who are constantly innovating without compromising on quality. While Dr. Adam Probolsky will serve as project manager and the City’s point of contact, our entire team, with broad research experience with local tax measures, will participate in projects for the City. You will always work with our senior team, all of whom have advanced research-related degrees and expertise. We have acted as pollster and strategic advisors for hundreds of city, county, school, and statewide agencies. Our active engagement in the American Association of Public Opinion Research ensures we have the latest perspectives on best research practices. We include unlimited meetings and presentation time. We welcome the chance to meet in-person and make presentations as directed, without limitations. We believe in regular and open communication and a collaborative working relationship. We know that staff is busy, so we limit the need for staff time and make ourselves available on your schedule. We provide individualized custom research to meet the City’s needs. We do not believe in a one-size-fits-all approach. You do however benefit from our vast reservoir of comparative data. Services Client Service Philosophy We do not take a formulaic approach to understanding the experience of your City’s likely voter. Your typical “poll” may not yield all the data necessary to understand voter sentiments. Taxes can be controversial, and researching them among voters requires a bigger vision approach than just asking the questions. We get to the root of voter opinions and the emotional drivers that will move voters, all informed by our diverse team with broad political, public policy, and research experience. Probolsky Research understands that tax measures and local government taxation. We have been conducting voter research on revenue measures for more than 27 years. Our firm has successfully supported the passage of ballot measures. We know how to win, and we bring our unique set of expertise to this project. Our research has guided our clients on tax measures for general taxes, utility user taxes, sales taxes, transportation, streets and roads, detention facilities, education, libraries, parks and open space, community facilities, public safety, transient occupancy taxes, landscape lighting districts, cannabis, fire and paramedic services, venues, healthcare, and hospitals. We also have the advantage of having been on the opposing side of new revenue measures and succeeding. No other public agency research firm has this kind of unique background. This helps us to better understand, test, and overcome opposition messaging and strategy. We understand that California law (and common sense) dictates that the City will never be advocating for an election outcome; you will only be offering factual education and outreach. Our work will be a force multiplier, making these efforts much more effective. Election Experience 6 We always recommend asking the tough questions. Testing the messages of those who oppose a revenue measure or generally take issue with City leadership will help the City better understand the impact of the opposition and how best to communicate with these voters. Probolsky Research conducts objective research and provides impartial analysis. Sometimes, our results are not what our clients want to hear, but we never sugarcoat our findings. As researchers and strategists, it is our job to find the right messages and to develop a strategy that works. We are passionate about local government —we do not give up easily. Initiating public education and outreach requires nuance and strategy. We provide guidance at every step of the way, from staff reports to ballot language and website Q&A to social media posts and community forums. 2024 Probolsky Research Ballot Measure Success City of Dixon Measure J: Sales Tax Measure Polling: Yes (67%) Election: Yes (54%) City of Sebastopol Measure U: Sales Tax Measure Polling: Yes (70%) Election: Yes (73%) City of Marysville Measure G: Sales Tax Renewal Measure Polling: Yes (74%) Election: Yes (75%) City of Rancho Cucamonga Measure Q: Hotel Tax Measure Polling: Yes (62%) Election: Yes (58%) Desert Healthcare District Measure AA: Hospital Lease Purchase Agreement Measure Polling: Yes (65%) Election: Yes (72%) City of Escondido Measure I: Public Services Sales Tax Measure Polling: Yes (56%) Election: Yes (61%) 7 Government Client List Probolsky Research has extensive experience conducting polls for government agencies. Below is a partial list of these clients. Alameda County Water District Arlington County, VA Borrego Springs Fire Protection District Boulder County, CO California Coastal Conservancy Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission, VT City and Borough of Juneau, AK City of Agoura Hills City of Alexandria, VA City of Arvada, CO City of Aspen, CO City of Beaverton, OR City and County of Boulder, CO City of Burbank City of College Park, MD City of Coos Bay, OR City of Dixon City of Dunwoody, GA City of Edgewater, CO City of El Segundo City of Encinitas City of Escondido City of Falls Church, VA City of Fontana City of Gresham, OR City of Grover Beach City of Half Moon Bay City of Hampton, VA City of Hyattsville, MD City of Laguna Beach City of Modesto City of Napa City of Newport Beach City of Pomona City of Rancho Cucamonga City of Rochester Hills, MI City of San Dimas City of San Fernando City of Santa Ana City of Stanton City of Temple City City of Twentynine Palms Clean Water Services, OR Coachella Valley Association of Governments Coachella Valley Water District Colorado Dept. of Local Affairs, Div. of Housing Costa Mesa Sanitary District Dakota County, MN Delta Vector Control District Deschutes County Health Services, OR Desert Healthcare District Desert Water Agency Dublin San Ramon Services District Early Learning Coalition of Hillsborough County, FL El Dorado Irrigation District Eastern Municipal Water District Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District Fulton County Board of Health, GA Great Parks of Hamilton County, OH Irvine Ranch Water District Kaweah Delta Healthcare District Los Angeles County Macomb County, MI Maryland Department of Health Metropolitan Water Dist. of Southern California Midway City Sanitary District Mission Springs Water District Missouri Department of Transportation Monongalia County Solid Waste Authority, WV Nevada Department of Transportation North Central Texas Council of Governments North Texas Tollway Authority Orange County Sanitation District Orange County Water District Ottawa County, MI Paramount Unified School District Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority, PA Richland County, SC San Bernardino County Employee’s Retirement Association Santa Clara County Recycling and Waste Reduction Commission Santa Clara Valley Water District Santa Cruz County Santa Margarita Water District Suffolk County Water Authority, NY Truckee Donner Public Utility District Town of Atherton Town of Avon, CO Town of Bluffton, SC Town of Greenwich, CT Town of Scituate, MA Town of Westerly Public Schools, RI Virginia Outdoors Foundation West Virginia Department of Agriculture 8 Accurate Research Must Be Accessible & Inclusive At our core, we are an organization that celebrates inclusivity because it is the only way to achieve accurate research. Being inclusive of the ways people differ is the best way to ensure that our research reflects the constituency we are researching - demographically and geographically. How do we do this? Speak to people in their preferred language Offer multiple ways to participate in the research Stratified random sampling to fully reflect constituent demographics Ensure the research honors the lived experience of the community Convey to participants that their voices will be heard We want Diamond Bar voter to know that they are taking an active role in improving their community. Accessibility Standards Our online poll platform adheres to the most current accessibility standards, including compliance with the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG) 2.1 AA and Section 508 of the U.S. Rehabilitation Act. It is designed to be accessible to people with a diverse range of sight, hearing, movement, and cognitive abilities, including users with impairments. Features include screen-reader and keyboard navigation compatibility, responsive poll layouts, high-contrast themes for the visually impaired, and rigorous accessibility testing. Cyber Security, Confidentiality, & Certifications We take data integrity and confidentiality seriously. All client materials are hosted in a secure digital cloud environment. We use 256-bit Advanced Encryption Security to keep your data secure. This is the same level of encryption used by the U.S. Government. Our data are stored on U.S.-based computers. Your residents’ data will be secure. Research is only released per staff’s direction. We use Box for content management. This cloud-based, encrypted system allows us to gather data and manage projects seamlessly and securely. We have multiple team members who hold certifications in the protection of human subjects in research from the Collaborative Institutional Training Initiative (CITI). CITI is the leading provider of research ethics and compliance education utilized by academic, medical, and social science researchers across the United States and globally. 9 References City of Escondido We conducted a multimode, multilingual, statistically valid poll among City of Sebastopol voters to help policymakers better understand community sentiments and find success in raising revenues through a sales tax measure. We conducted a multimode, multilingual, statistically valid polls among City of Escondido voters to understand the prospects of three separate local tax measures and advise the city council on the best chances of success. Our work included assessing the impact of the County’s measure on the City’s choices. We advised the City not to pursue alternative measures, keeping only the sales tax measure on the ballot. Contact: Joanna Axelrod, Deputy City Manager Address: 201 North Broadway, Escondido, CA 92025 Telephone: 760-839-4871 Email: jaxelrod@escondido.org Completion Date: November 2024 City of Sebastopol Contact: Don Schwartz, City Manager Address: 7120 Bodega Avenue, Sebastopol, CA 95472 Telephone: 707-823-1153 Email: dschwartz@cityofsebastopol.gov Completion Date: November 2024 We have conducted several voter polls to measure voter opinion on possible revenue ballot measures including testing satisfaction with City services. In 2024, based on our research, the City successfully passed a Transient Occupancy Tax increase ballot measure. Contact: Jennifer Camacho-Curtis, Community Affairs Officer Address: 10500 Civic Center Drive, Rancho Cucamonga 91730 Telephone: 909-774-2048 Email: Jennifer.Camacho-Curtis@cityofrc.us Completion Date: November 2024 Link to Results Presentation Link to Report on Results City of Rancho Cucamonga (CA) Link to Results Presentation Link to Report on Results Link to Results Presentation Link to Report on Results Gender/Age demographics Percentage Male 49% Female 45% Other 5% 18-29 17% 30-39 15% 40-49 14% 50-64 24% 65+29% Ethnicity/Home Type demographics Percentage Latino/Hispanic 22% White/Caucasian 22% Black/African American 1% Asian/Pacific Islander 43% Other/Unknown 12% Democratic 37% Non-Partisan/Other 30% Republican 28% 10 Methodology and Project Understanding Project Initiation We begin every research project by understanding how our client got to this moment in time. We have conducted polls and focus groups in the City for more than a decade. We know the community and voters well. We understand that our objective is to gather statistically valid data through polling that will inform recommendations for potential revenue mechanisms to support parks, facilities, and infrastructure projects. We can test multiple revenue options such as a Transactions and Use Tax (Sales Tax), General Obligation Bond, or other funding alternatives to help diversify the City's revenue sources. We will conduct a full analysis of Measure DB’s failure in November 2020 as well as the 2016 poll that led to the City’s decision not to go to the ballot. You cannot overwhelm us with background information and data. We expect to pore through staff reports, budgets, past polling, news clips, and social media posts talking about the City. We believe this is an essential part of providing best-practice approaches to the City. There is nothing peripheral about our work. Diamond Bar Voter Analysis We have conducted an initial analysis of Diamond Bar voters based on data from the Los Angeles County Election Board. Knowing what questions to ask is only one aspect of determining voter opinions. Modeling for turnout presents a uniquely challenging task. Developing a turnout model requires careful examination of voter history in the City and a review of the factors impacting turnout in specific future elections. We do not rely solely on asking voters how likely they are to vote in an upcoming election. While this seems like the obvious way to determine the likelihood of participation, it does not capture true turnout. Voters don’t like to admit to failing in their duty to fulfill the social contract of voting. Voters often claim they are more likely to participate than they are — especially if they are younger or newer Americans. Also, not every likely voter who returns a ballot will vote on the City’s measure. Example: While there are 34,298 residents registered to vote in the City, only 23,271 (67%) voted in the 2024 General Election. Further complicating turnout modeling, just 20,762 (60%) of those who turned in a ballot chose to vote on Measure E. We call this undervoting and if ignored by a research team, it can disqualify the poll results as inaccurate. By understanding these differences and getting turnout right, we will know the relative importance of key messages and targetable voting blocs (and how receptive they are to alternative messaging) and will be able to direct outreach resources accordingly. But this takes political campaign knowledge. It’s not something learned in a classroom. Voter Turnout Modeling 11 Goals: Specifically, we will: Review the City’s culture, current budget, Capital Improvement Program, and infrastructure needs Discuss potential revenue measure options Provide analysis and recommendations to the City on the best election cycle for a potential revenue ballot measure, considering voter engagement, timing, and community priorities Design a poll questionnaire in English, Chinese (Mandarin), Korean, and Spanish and establish statistically valid sampling and polling methods to assess community support for revenue measures and their perception of the City’s services and budget priorities Conduct statistically valid polls to gauge support for revenue measures, ensuring availability in English, Chinese (Mandarin), Korean, and Spanish. Recommend appropriate sample sizes to achieve a 95% confidence level with +/- 5% accuracy. Polling results will include the following: Community support for specific projects and services, preferred revenue measures, and the impact on revenue Provide accurate data and recommendations on potential revenue measures Gauge how support would change based on the rate and level of revenue generated, key messages, arguments in favor and opposed, and other features like sunset and citizen oversight provisions Draft and present a comprehensive final report detailing polling results, findings, limitations and challenges, and recommendations - present to staff, council members, or other key stakeholders. Prior to our first meeting with staff, we will provide the City with a project kick-off agenda memo that outlines the objectives, processes, and next steps of the research. You can view an example of a project kick-off agenda memo by following this link. Project Kick-off Agenda Memo We will meet with staff to develop the questions the research needs to answer. We undergo an extensive review of primary and secondary data sources, including news clips and articles, social media posts, and other relevant data to inform our research. Through this approach, we develop the necessary historical context to inform and work collaboratively with the City on the objectives, goals, and priorities for the poll. Using the information gleaned from meetings, calls, past research, background information provided by staff, and our own open-source preliminary research, we will make recommendations for the number of questions, suggested content and questions, and duration of the poll; to maximize engagement results. We are always available to our clients. We will continually keep the City informed of progress with meetings and updates. While we recommend a weekly call to ensure the project is on track, we will accommodate any meeting or call schedule staff requests. At least one project team member will be available 24/7 for urgent matters. Following meetings or conference calls in which we discuss proposed modifications, we will incorporate agreed-upon changes. We recognize that this may require several rounds of revisions. Once we produce the final draft, we will submit the questionnaire for final approval and begin professional translation, create phonetic pronunciations of names for telephone responses, establish proportions to match voter demographics and geographic location within the City, and program the proportions, along with the poll, into our secure polling platform. After programming, the poll is tested for logic and presentation. Once this initial testing has been completed, we conduct a soft launch, also known as a pre-test, of the poll and collect 20 completed interviews. Once the pre-test collection period is complete, our team meets to review the results and address any problem areas that come to light, adjusting the p as necessary. We conduct quality control checks regularly throughout the polling process. We check for correct skip patterns, randomization and rotation, and completeness of responses. We also actively monitor to ensure that respondents will match the demographic makeup of Diamond Bar likely voters. 12 Research Design Prior to launching the poll, we will provide the City with a research process memo that explains the purpose, timing, and how it will be conducted. This document can be used to inform staff and policymakers about the poll. You can view an example research process memo here. We will also help with social media posts, press releases, and other outreach as requested. Research Process and Community Outreach 13 With our extensive national experience conducting public opinion polls on ballot measures, we propose using a statistically valid multi-mode approach, including telephone and online, to reach a representative group of voters. This approach allows for greater flexibility, better coverage across different demographics, and more reliable insights. This methodology, which is now considered the best research practice, will provide the City with the most comprehensive, accurate, and actionable data. Online respondents can complete the poll via our secure platform from any device: computer, tablet, or mobile phone after receiving an email or text message with a unique poll link. After launching the online portion of the poll, we contact participants who have not already completed the poll online, on their landlines and mobile phones. Telephone respondents are called by our live U.S.-based professional interviewers on their landline or mobile phone. A sample size of 400 voters is robust and will yield a +/-5% margin of error at a 95% level of confidence. The statistically representative, random sample will allow for statistically reliable comparisons among all subgroups of the City’s voters (e.g., by demographic and geographic variables). Community Poll and Revenue Measure Research Research Approach 14 The statistically valid sample file of Diamond Bar voters will be secured by Probolsky Research, at our expense, from the Los Angeles County Elections Department. It includes names, addresses, emails, and phone numbers – (landlines and mobile phones) and hundreds of voting history data points for all voters. Sample Stratification Unique to Probolsky Research: We match the demographics of Diamond Bar voters. This means we capture real responses of the right number of each gender, age group, ethnicity, party, etc. This eliminates the need for artificially weighted results. Data Analysis Once our data collection phase is complete, we begin a process of comprehensive data analysis and reporting to deliver accurate, thorough, and actionable data insights to the City. We complete statistical analyses of the research results, utilizing software programs, including IBM SPSS and R to conduct statistical testing, such as multiple regression analysis. Both qualitative and quantitative data will be analyzed in a scientifically valid manner. This helps us discover and present statistically significant results – beyond the broad opinions – and understand the specific factors that contribute to attitudes and beliefs of voters. Such analyses are crucial in identifying gaps in public perception and awareness. Once we have run all analyses on results, cross tabulations are developed, graphics are generated, and other elements of the report are prepared. Tracking Poll(s) and Additional Tasks We can also provide additional statistically valid polling completed in increments of 100. This can be valuable when trying to better understand a specific subgroup of voters. Tracking surveys augment the initial research, helping the City maintain a firm grasp on how voters are receiving public outreach messages and allows for adjustments to targeting as the election approaches. They are an important element of the overall research and outreach strategy. 15 Reporting Verbatim Responses to Open-Ended Questions For open-ended questions, we code the responses into categories. Once these categorizations have been quantified, we take our analysis a step further. We analyze the tone and word choices and overlay demographic data for each response. This demographic overlay will provide the City with a thorough understanding of the opinions by age, ethnicity, gender, home type, language, party, etc. when reading their comments. Here is an example: Female, 40-49, White/Caucasian, English, Democratic, Homeowner, No Party Preference Question: What is the top issue facing your community? Answer: Activities for teens Example of a verbatim response with demographic overlay Our reporting is comprehensive and immediately usable by decision-makers. Our reporting includes: P rese ntati ons to th e key sta ff, the C ity Co un c il , a nd o t her a ud iences a s dir ected In-person m eeting s , p rese ntati ons , co nference c al ls, an d on going c on s ul ting 1 Po ll ing pu r pos e, m etho dolog y, and k ey f in di ngs thr ough ch arts, tr acki ng d ata vi sua li z ation, cros s -t abula t ions, c onc lusions, and r eco m mend ations i n Po we rPoi nt pre senta ti on fo rmat. A lso a lar ger repo rt on re s ul ts th at in c lu des o pen-ende d re s po nses a nd demo graphic ove r la y s in PD F. Once the reporting has been developed, we expect the City’s education and outreach consultant to engage with us to develop strategies for success. Our team has worked with every voter education and outreach firm in California. There will be no need for introductions, the chance for miscommunication, or concerns over roles. Coordination With Other Consultants After completing our reports, we will send our deliverables for feedback and approval. We will incorporate the requested changes before finalizing and making presentations to other stakeholders as directed. We are available to present findings virtually or in-person. We also welcome the chance to work with the City’s preferred outreach consultants or in-house communications team, to ensure the results of our research can be fully utilized. We will make strategy recommendations based on the poll results. We do not charge for advising and coordinating with staff and other consultants based on our research. Final Reporting, Presentations, and Ongoing Consulting 2 3 16 Geospatial Mapping Geospatial mapping of results is included. We will map polls respondents and their responses to different questions geographically. Our method ensures that individual respondents cannot be identified. EXAMPLE: Diamond Bar voters mapped (left). Respondents mapped by geography and response to questions (San Dimas, CA- right). Results Tracking We will provide results tracking comparing data from polls previously conducted for the City. Below is an example of our results tracking over time. EXAMPLE: Results tracking over time (City of Napa, CA) 17 Timeline We can meet any timeline provided by the City. We can start our work for the City immediately. Below is an example timeline that can be easily shortened or otherwise modified. Week 1 Process Kick-off Kick-off meeting Collect & analyze background information Submit for approval Make requested edits Finalize poll Translate Field poll Deliver reporting Present results as requested Ongoing consulting Write poll questionnaire Send draft for review & edits Research Development Submit for Approval Finalize & Translate Poll Report Analysis & Development Field Poll Week 1 Week 2 Week 2 Week 3 Week 3 Probolsky Research has the necessary capacity to deliver high-quality work within any timeline requested by the City. In over thirty years of business, we have never initiated a change order; we have always delivered on time and within budget. Number of Questions/Time Universe Number of Respondents Margin of Error Cost Approx. 15 minutes Diamond Bar likely voters 400 +/-5%$29,900 Our pricing is not to exceed. We do not charge for travel or any other expenses. We will accommodate any budget requested by the City. We are flexible. Cost for Services Pre-poll consulting with staff, questionnaire and sample development $4,750 Conduct polling $20,000 Post-poll work, including reporting, presentations, and ongoing consulting $5,150 Cost by task (example) Additional completed poll responses per 100 $7,500 Tracking poll (approx. 6 minutes)$12,900 Additional tasks cost (optional) Cost by task (example) Task Estimated Hours Cost Meeting participation Unlimited No charge Background research Unlimited No charge Poll draft design/development 20 $2,000 Professional translation 15 $1,500 Sample preparation 12.5 $1,250 Programming Unlimited No charge Data collection 200 $20,000 Data processing Unlimited No charge Data analysis 30 $3,000 Analytical report development 21.5 $2,150 Presentations at public meetings and elsewhere Unlimited No charge Additional consultation post-research Unlimited No charge LUMP SUM $29,900 We offer a fully loaded blended staff rate of $100 per hour. 18 Insurance Adam Probolsky Contract Agreement Probolsky Research agrees to the City’s Consulting Agreement Terms and Conditions