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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCity of Diamond Bar Proposal 2-25 - Final SAN FRANCISCO • OHIO • BOSTON • NEW YORK February 24, 2025 Proposal for Research City of Diamond Bar Table of Contents Cover Letter Page 2 Project Team Page 3 Firm Experience/References Page 6 Methodology/Project Understanding Page 8 Cost for Services Page 9 Statement of Insurance Coverage Page 10 Consulting Services Agreement Page 10 August 19, 2019 Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 2 COVER LETTER Thank you for the opportunity to submit this proposal to conduct research on behalf of the City of Diamond Bar. We are ideally suited to meet your public opinion research needs as we have decades of extensive experience conducting polling and providing winning strategies that have helped pass many revenue measures across California and beyond. These have funded everything from infrastructure and capital improvement to transportation, facilities, parks, education and library funding. Tulchin Research is an award-winning public opinion research firm with offices in San Francisco, Ohio, Boston and New York and six full-time employees. We specialize in polling and strategic consulting for local public agencies, revenue measure efforts, non-profits, foundations, and candidates for elected office around the country. We conduct both qualitative and quantitative research, including telephone surveys, online surveys, both in-person and online focus groups, on-line ad testing, and other forms of public opinion research. We also offer cutting-edge advanced statistical analysis in the form of micro-targeting and predictive analytics. Tulchin Research and our team have been conducting public opinion research for more than four decades with an unmatched reputation for accuracy. Beyond being highly accurate pollsters, we are strategists and thought leaders who have earned a reputation for creative thinking and finding solutions to seemingly intractable problems. From guiding revenue measures that have raised billions of dollars to electing candidates to victory in elections that pundits said were unwinnable to helping advocacy organizations win landmark victories, Tulchin Research has time and again partnered with our clients to turn complex data into actionable strategy that delivers results. In this proposal, we present background information about our firm and some of our most relevant experience, along with a research plan with estimated costs. We are eager and very willing to work with your organization and appreciate your consideration in this effort. All conditions proposed are valid for a period of at least ninety (90) calendar days. Sincerely, Ben Tulchin Contact information of Principal: Ben Tulchin, President and Founder ben@tulchinresearch.com 415-613-5480 180 Idora Ave, San Francisco, CA 94127 Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 3 PROJECT TEAM As a small business, our team works collaboratively on all projects. The principal of our firm is Ben Tulchin, President & Founder. Alongside Ben, the lead on this project will be Corey O’Neil, Vice President and Director of Operations. Kelsey Bullis, Analyst; Corey Teter, Senior Analyst; and Caroline Joseph, Project Coordinator/Assistant Analyst will provide additional support. Below, we provide more information about our team’s background and qualifications. Biography and Qualifications of Ben Tulchin President, Tulchin Research Founder and President of Tulchin Research, Ben Tulchin is a leading national pollster who has provided research and consulting services to a wide range of clients across the country, including non-profits and foundations, ballot measure and electoral campaigns, government agencies, labor unions, and corporations. Tulchin is an award-winning pollster who serves as a senior strategist for candidate and ballot measure campaigns at all levels. He served as pollster and strategist for Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams in his come-from-behind victory in the 2021 Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City and as Bernie Sanders’s pollster in the U.S. Senator’s presidential campaigns that far exceeded expectations. Tulchin’s clients have included California Governor Gavin Newsom, former DNC Chairman and presidential candidate Howard Dean, former California Governor Gray Davis, Costa Rica President Luis Guillermo Solis, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Senate Majority PAC. In recent election cycles, Tulchin helped Democrats take back the U.S. Senate in winning the two Senate seats in Georgia, re-elect two U.S. Senators (Sherrod Brown-OH and Bernie Sanders-VT), elect three governors (Gavin Newsom-CA, Jared Polis-CO, and Laura Kelly-KS), and played an instrumental role in helping Democrats win back the House in 2018 including flipping seven House seats in California from red-to-blue and serving as a senior strategist in winning the country’s most expensive Congressional race in history. Tulchin has provided public opinion research, targeting, and message development guidance to some of America’s top non-profits, foundations, and corporations. He has helped create and guide numerous successful public education campaigns for non-profit foundations, including the ACLU, California Endowment, the California Wellness Foundation, Defenders of Wildlife, the League of Conservation Voters, and the Silicon Valley Community Foundation, as well as labor unions such as the California Federation of Teach ers, SEIU and UFCW. He has provided corporate strategy and government relations advice to major companies such as Abbott Laboratories, AT&T, General Electric, Google, National Semiconductor, Pacific Gas and Electric, Tesla and Toyota. Due to his expertise in polling, politics, and campaign strategy, Tulchin is regularly quoted in the news media. His commentary has appeared in the New York Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Los Angeles Times, the Wall Street Journal, the New Yorker, Roll Call, Politico, the Hill as well as other publications and he has appeared on numerous radio and television news shows. Having worked for several of the nation’s leading polling firms, Tulchin launched his own firm, Tulchin Research, in 2009. Previously, Tulchin started and directed Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research’s Western Region office, worked for the California-based polling firm of Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates, as well as the Washington, DC-based polling firms of Garin-Hart-Yang, Lake Research Partners, and Greenberg Research, where he began his career in polling. Mr. Tulchin received his Bachelor’s degree in History from Amherst College and resides in San Francisco. Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 4 Biography and Qualifications of Corey O’Neil Vice President/Director of Operations, Tulchin Research Corey is Vice President and Director of Operations at Tulchin Research, joining the firm in March of 2010. He's managed successful local, statewide and national public opinion research projects aimed at measuring public opinion and public policy at local, state and national levels. He has led research efforts for a myriad of organizations that include the California Democratic Caucus, CLCV, the ACLU, SPLC, the California Endowment, the National Education Association (NEA), Change to Win, Planned Parenthood, Pacific Resources Partnership, the Blue Shield California Foundation, SEIU, EQCA, and the Teamsters, among others. Corey has a strong background in conducting public opinion research aimed at preserving and increasing revenues, balancing local and state budgets, and pushing progressive policy through local and state governments that help people who need it most. He was the lead analyst on research that has helped pass legislation that reduced the prison population in California and relaxed excessive penalties for drug possession and for non-violent criminals as well as research that has helped reform the law enforcement practices and the bail system. And he led public opinion research projects that led to the successful passage of Prop.1 (2014), the $7 billion statewide water bond at the peak of the most recent drought. He has also led research projects to secure funding for schools, libraries, public safety agencies, and local parks and recreation services for the most vulnerable in our communities. He was the lead analyst for research that cleared the path for successful passage of multiple revenue measures for the San Francisco Community College District as well as research for the East Bay Regional Park District, San Francisco Parks Trust and the City of Millbrae in their successful efforts to extend a fire assessment that was set to expire in 2014. And he led the public opinion research that led to successful passage of the San Francisco Children's Fund (2014) and San Francisco Dignity Fund (2016). Prior to joining Tulchin Research, Corey was an Assistant Analyst for the Feldman Group and Project Associate at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research in Washington D.C. working on behalf of Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, to re-elect Tim Johnson to the United States Senate after coming back from a debilitating stroke, and helping to elect New Hampshire’s first female Senator, Jeanne Shaheen. Corey is a native of Napa and a graduate of the California State University, Chico with degrees in Political Science, Philosophy and a Minor in Ethics. If he is not answering his phone or emails, he is likely chasing his little one or playing basketball (or guitar) in a beautiful Bay Area park. Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 5 Biography and Qualifications of Corey Teter Senior Analyst, Tulchin Research Corey joined Tulchin Research as a Senior Analyst in February 2020 and is currently based in Boston, Massachusetts. During his time at Tulchin Research, Corey has conducted numerous qualitative and quantitative research studies for political campaigns at the federal, state, and municipal levels. This includes helping to coordinate the polling for Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign for President, polling for the 2020 California Democratic House Caucus and, most recently, Eric Adams’ Democratic primary campaign for New York City Mayor and Mark Levine’s primary campaign for Manhattan Borough President. In addition to his work with political candidates, Corey also has a wealth of experience conducting research for a host of issue advocacy organizations. He has polled extensively for organizations such as the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) on issues ranging from criminal justice and police reform to efforts combatting institutional racism and white supremacy. Prior to joining Tulchin Research, Corey worked as a research analyst for Lake Research Partners in Washington DC where he specialized in candidate work and several specialized policy areas including criminal justice reform, gun policy, and drug policy reform. Corey received his master’s degree in communications and public policy from the American University in Washington DC and his bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of La Verne in Southern California. Biography and Qualifications of Kelsey Bullis Analyst, Tulchin Research Kelsey joined Tulchin Research as an Analyst in November 2021. Prior to joining Tulchin Research, Kelsey worked as a research analyst for Lake Research Partners in Washington DC where she worked for numerous political campaigns at the federal, state, and municipal levels, as well as a host of issue advocacy organizations, labor unions, and ballot initiative campaigns. In addition to campaign work, Kelsey also has research experience in several specialized policy areas including criminal justice reform, education reform, and environmental policy. Kelsey received his master’s degree in environmental sciences and policy from Johns Hopkins University and her bachelor’s degree in psychology from John Carroll University in Cleveland, Ohio. Kelsey is based in Rochester, New York. Biography and Qualifications of Caroline Joseph Project Coordinator/Assistant Analyst, Tulchin Research Caroline Joseph joined Tulchin Research in May 2023. She previously worked as a Research Assistant at the Democratic Governors Association, where she provided opposition research for winning campaigns spanning from Arizona to Oregon and Maine. Caroline also specializes in government ethics, campaign finance, and democracy research. As a Research Analyst for RepresentUs, she provided support to a variety of local, state, and federal election improvement and protection campaigns. She began her career with int ernships at OpenSecrets and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington D.C. Caroline is passionate about labor issues, having served on the inaugural bargaining committee for the UsRepresented Union (OPEIU Local 153). Caroline graduated with honors from Pitzer College, where she majored in Organizational Studies and wrote her thesis on intergovernmental lobbying of FEMA. She lives in San Francisco, where you may find her swimming laps in the bay. Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 6 FIRM EXPERIENCE & REFERENCES Below is a list of Tulchin Research references and detail on the projects on which we have collaborated. Erich Pfuehler Chief of Government and Legislative Affairs, East Bay Regional Parks District W (510)-544-2006 epfuehler@ebparks.org • East Bay Regional Parks District: We have been advising this organization formally and informally over many years in brainstorming ways to increase funding for the district. We have discussed at length with their staff new and innovative ways to get more resources for the district, either through local or statewide efforts. Among other ways we have tried to be helpful, we led an all-day strategy retreat hosted by EBRPD with Bay Area agencies dedicated to preserving open space to develop strategies around finding resources for conservation efforts. • Most recently, we conducted a district wide survey in January of this year to determine support for a 2024 revenue measure to increase funding for services, wildfire mitigation and facilities among other things. Our research found strong support for the EBRPD, but more tepid support for a funding measure, requiring the need for public education and communications to increase support. We will also be completing focus groups and an additional survey in coming months. Jovan Grogan City Manager, City of Santa Clara W (408) 615-2211 jgrogan@santaclaraca.gov • City of Santa Clara: We have worked with the City of Santa Clara since 2018 to help them better understand public opinion toward an ambitious effort to update and modernize various parts of their city. Like many cities, Santa Clara has been grappling how best to fund key parts of its community infrastructure, especially an outdated and unsafe international swim center. This initial research focused on updating the outdated international swim center. However, multiple rounds of public opinion research indicated the approach was too narrow and needed to expand to a larger infrastructure package aimed at developing a concrete and achievable infrastructure funding. Our efforts helped to inform the city about voter priorities like roads and public safety and change their initial focus to confidently place a 2024 infrastructure bond (Santa Clara Measure I) on the ballot that exceeded the 2/3 voter threshold (69% Yes votes) needed to pass. The 30- year bond will provide $400 million to fund critical needs, such as public safety and water infrastructure. Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 7 Jamie Casso City Attorney, City of Industry W: (626) 269-2980 jcasso@cassosparks.com • Tres Hermanos Open Space: Tulchin Research conducted citywide survey research among voters in Diamond Bar and Chino Hills to assess sentiments toward the City of Industry’s recent purchase of the 2,450 acre property known as Tres Hermanos and their plans to preserve it as open space. The survey aimed at better understanding how voters felt about Industry potentially including a solar farm on the property as well as proposed plans by public officials in both Diamond Bar and Chino Hills for building more housing on the parcel. Our research found that voters in both Diamond Bar and Chino Hills held strong preferences for the City of Industry plans to preserve the Tres Hermanos property for open space over building more housing and commercial development. Additionally, there was strong support among voters in both cities for a potential solar project on the property to generate solar power for the surrounding communities. Below is a list of some of our other notable successes: Infrastructure, Parks & Facilities - Statewide: ▪ California (Statewide): Proposition 50, Water Quality, Supply and Safe Drinking Water Projects, Coastal Wetlands Purchase and Protection ▪ California (Statewide): Proposition 40, Clean Water, Clean Air, Safe Neighborhood Parks and Coastal Protection Act ▪ California (Statewide): Proposition 12, $2.2B Safe Neighborhood Parks, Clean Water, Clean Air & Coastal Protection Bond ▪ California (Statewide): Proposition 13, $1.8B Safe Drinking Water, Clean Water, Watershed Protection and Flood Protection Bond ▪ California (Statewide): Proposition 1, Water Bond ▪ Nevada (Statewide): Question 1, $200M Conservation Bond ▪ California (Statewide): Proposition 1A, High Speed Rail ▪ California (Statewide): Proposition 42, the California Transportation Congestion Improvement Act Infrastructure, Parks & Facilities – Local: ▪ Los Angeles County (CA): Measure B, Trauma and Emergency Medical Services Parcel Tax ▪ Napa County (CA): Measure A, City of Napa Rural Urban Limit Line Expansion ▪ City of Emeryville (CA): Proposition T, Bike Path Modification & Zoning Changes ▪ City of Emeryville (CA): Proposition U, Pixar Construction Authorization & Bike Path Requirements ▪ City of Dallas (TX): Proposition A, $521.2 million street and transportation bond ▪ City of Dallas (TX): Proposition B, $345.3 million parks and recreation bond ▪ City of Dallas (TX): Proposition C, $52.1 million flood protection and storm drainage bond ▪ City of Dallas (TX): Proposition D, $43.5 million library bond Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 8 ▪ City of Dallas (TX): Proposition H, $26.4 million housing and neighborhood infrastructure bond ▪ San Francisco Recreation & Parks (CA): Proposition B, Clean and Safe Neighborhood Parks ▪ Monterey-Salinas Transit District (CA): Measure Q, Public Transit Sales Tax ▪ Orange County (CA): Measure F, Orange County Central Park and Nature Preserve Initiative ▪ Sacramento County (CA): Measure O, Deer Creek Hills ▪ San Mateo County Transportation: Measure W, Roads and Transit Sales Tax ▪ San Francisco: Yes on Proposition A/No on Proposition H Campaign, Muni Reform ▪ Santa Clara County: Measure A, Santa Clara County ½ Cent Sales Tax Measure ▪ San Francisco (CA): Proposition F, Neighborhood Firehouse Protection Act METHODOLOGY / PROJECT UNDERSTANDING Tulchin Research will conduct a baseline survey to assess the feasibility of a revenue ballot measure, gauge public sentiment on municipal services and budget priorities, and analyze voter support for various revenue options. Our approach is built on decades of experience conducting public opinion research and guiding successful ballot measure campaigns across California, and we will leverage this expertise to tailor our methodology to the City’s unique needs. At the outset, we will engage in in-depth discussions with City staff to gain a comprehensive understanding of the City’s priorities, budgetary challenges, and infrastructure needs. This collaboration ensures that our survey is designed to elicit the most meaningful insights. We will review the City’s budget, Capital Improvement Program, and funding priorities, using our past experience with revenue measures to identify the most viable funding mechanisms. Based on these discussions, we will provide a list of potential revenue measures and recommend an optimal election cycle by analyzing voter engagement, timing, and community priorities. To ensure statistically valid insights, Tulchin Research will develop a survey questionnaire in English, Chinese (Mandarin), and Korean, employing scientifically sound sampling methods to achieve a 95% confidence level with a ±5% margin of error. The survey will assess community sentiment on specific projects, preferred revenue measures, and how support fluctuates based on rate and revenue level. Data collection will use a multimodal approach, combining online, telephone, and text-based outreach to maximize response rates. The final analysis will highlight voter priorities, identify key messaging strategies, and provide actionable recommendations on the viability of a revenue ballot measure. Upon completing data collection and analysis, Tulchin Research will prepare a comprehensive final report detailing polling results, findings, limitations, and recommendations. This report will be presented to City staff, council members, and other key stakeholders in a format that facilitates informed decision-making. At a time when it is growing increasingly difficult to conduct accurate and reliable polling due to changing consumer and voter behavior, as well as the rise of cell phones and demise of landlines, we have earned a reputation as one of the country’s most accurate pollsters and proven time and Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 9 again that political and issue-based polling can still be accurate and highly effective if done properly and with methodological innovation. Tulchin Research has a demonstrated track record of accuracy in polling built on methodological innovation. We have developed a proprietary sampling methodology involving cluster stratification that we work closely with our phone banks to ensure adherence to in fielding. This has been a key driver of our accurate numbers at a time when polling generally is increasingly difficult and less accurate. And we have a firm grasp of when, where and how best to utilize various methods of research to fit the needs of our clients. In terms of research timing, we are ready to move forward with survey drafting as soon as we have the green light and can aim to get you a draft to review within 1 -2 weeks from that. We should plan for another week to edit and finalize the draft, assuming a relatively smooth approval process and 1-2 weeks for fielding the survey. Upon finalizing the survey, we estimate 7-10 days to complete a final report and any communications you would want to share publicly. We lay out this six-week estimated timeline in the table below: Week Task Estimated Work Time Week 1-2 Draft, Edit, Finalize Survey 1-2 weeks Week 3-4 Translate and Field Survey 1-2 weeks Week 4 Topline Analysis Briefing 1 days following survey completion Week 4 Cross-Tabulated Results 2 days following survey completion Week 5-6 Survey Analysis Briefing 1-2 weeks following survey completion COST FOR SERVICES Baseline Citywide Public Opinion Survey: In order to assess baseline community sentiments towards support of any proposed November 2026 revenue measure to fund infrastructure improvements, facilities, and parks, including testing various mechanisms and funding levels, Tulchin Research recommends conducting a citywide multi-modal survey (both phones and online). The survey would assess the overall mood of the community, identifying top issue concerns and sentiments, approval of current services and priority areas for future improvement. The survey will focus gauge public opinion aimed at informing recommendations for potential revenue mechanisms to support parks, facilities, and infrastructure projects. We can use a survey instrument to test various messaging themes and elements to see what resonates most with voters. The survey would conclude with a series of demographic questions to help us break out findings among key demographic and geographic subgroups. To achieve these research goals, we provide options for interviewing up to 400 voters in the City of Diamond Bar with a public opinion survey that would be conducted in English, Chinese (Mandarin), and Korean using a multi-modal instrument (both phone and online methodologies). This survey would take the average respondent approximately 15 to 20 minutes to complete and have a margin of error of +/-5 (95% accuracy). Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 10 Research Cost Estimates Research Type Specifications Research Length Cost Multi-Modal Citywide Public Opinion Survey Up to 400 Likely Voters 15 minutes $40,000 18 minutes $42,000 20 minutes $44,000 (Optional) Refinement & Tracking Polling: Following the initial survey, you may wish to implement additional polling, either in the form of additional refinement polling to further hone strategy or tracking polls that could help measure the effectiveness of subsequent public education and outreach efforts. To achieve these research goals, we provide options for interviewing up to 400 voters in the City of Diamond Bar with surveys that would be conducted in English, Chinese (Mandarin), and Korean using a multi-modal instrument (both phone and online methodologies). Depending on the aim, each survey could take anywhere from 15 to 20 minutes for a message refinement survey and 6 to 8 minutes for a tracking survey, with a margin of error of +/-5 (95% accuracy). Research Cost Estimates Research Type Specifications Research Length Cost Refinement Poll(s) Up to 400 Likely Voters 15 minutes $40,000 18 minutes $42,000 20 minutes $44,000 Tracking Poll(s) Up to 400 Likely Voters 6 minutes $32,000 per survey 8 minutes $34,000 per survey The survey prices will include everything involved in developing the survey, including constructing the questionnaire and sample (for multi-modal only); translating to Chinese (Mandarin) and Korean; fielding the survey in English, Chinese (Mandarin), and Korean; processing the data; analyzing the results; and presenting the findings. Statement of Insurance Coverage If selected, Tulchin Research will obtain the required insurance coverage, and we understand that said coverage is a prerequisite for entering into an agreement with the City. Consulting Services Agreement Tulchin Research agrees to the City’s Consulting Services Agreement terms and conditions. Tulchin Research Proposal – City of Diamond Bar 11 ***** Please let us know if you have any questions about this proposal or the research in general. You can reach Tulchin Research by e-mail (ben@tulchinresearch.com, corey@tulchinresearch.com or admin@tulchinresearch.com).