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From: Ryan Kittell - NOAA Federal <ryan.kittell@noaa.gov>
Date: May 12, 2022 at 1:13:54 PM PDT
To: Ryan Kittell - NOAA Federal <ryan.kittell@noaa.gov>
Subject: NWS Los Angeles - Fire Notes - Thu May 12, 2022
Greetings.
The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard will NOT be holding a conference call today, but there are some items to raise to your awareness:
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING:
* Winds: Gusts 35-50 mph. Isolated gusts 60-70 mph possible in the mountains including Montecito Hills. (see attached graphic)
* NW-N Direction each afternoon and evening. N-NE direction each night and morning.
* Winds peak 3pm to 6am each day.
* Winds strongest today/tonight, 5-10 mph weaker Fri/Sat.
* Strongest over southern Santa Barbara County (including Montecito), Central Coast, Most Mountains (including I-5 Corridor, Santa Lucias, Santa Monicas), Santa Clarita Valley
* Breezy winds will also impact the San Fernando and Ventura Valleys and interior San Luis Obispo Valleys
* SBA-BFL and LAX-BFL pressure gradients peaking between -6.0 to -7.0 mb Friday morning. Strong and rare for May (99th percentile)
* Peak LAX-DAG gradient -3 to -4 millibars. Weak but rare for May (97th percentile)
* Weak upper level support
* Humidity: Mins 8-15% common valleys and mountains, 12-25% common coasts.
* Moderately poor overnight recoveries 25-40% in mountains and windier valleys.
* Temperatures: Highs 85-95 common (10-15 degrees above normal).
* Assessment:
* Elevated to Brief Critical Fire Weather Conditions.
* Localized 2-4 hours of critical conditions in windiest / driest areas
* Red Flag warnings for most extreme conditions NOT expected.
* Active wildfires with strong initial response likely if ignition occurs
* Downed trees and power outages are possible.
OUTLOOK:
* Sunday through Wednesday, cooler but still above normal temperatures. Typically gusty SW-NW winds.
Read the full fire weather planning forecast: https://go.usa.gov/xRFM3
Monitor the current conditions with the Fire Weather Snooper at: https://www.weather.gov/lox/fwmV3
Fire One Page is a one-stop-shop for fire weather links: https://www.weather.gov/lox/fire
We continue to be open and staff 24/7 for any weather related needs.
If you have any questions, please do not respond to this email, but call us at 805-988-6626 (unlisted).
Thank You.
--
Ryan Kittell
Forecaster
NOAA's National Weather Service, Los Angeles/Oxnard, Ca
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