HomeMy WebLinkAboutFwd_ NWS Los Angeles_Oxnard Fire Conference Call Summary Notes_ Sunday Sep 4th.msgCAUTION: This message originated outside of our City of Diamond Bar network.
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Weather update into next week
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San Dimas, CA 91773
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Begin forwarded message:
From: David Gomberg - NOAA Federal <david.gomberg@noaa.gov>
Date: September 4, 2022 at 1:14:06 PM PDT
Subject: NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Fire Conference Call Summary Notes: Sunday Sep 4th
Greetings.
Thank you for joining the fire weather conference call. Here is a summary of key highlights discussed on the call.
*** Dangerous long duration heat wave with potential for large vertical plume growth leading to elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions through at least Wednesday***
***Threat of monsoonal thunderstorms with potential for heavy downpours and strong winds across the mountains, deserts, and portions of the valleys through Tuesday***
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Significant long duration heat wave continues, with coastal areas seeing most significant impact today and Labor Day.
*** EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MOST VALLEYS, MOUNTAINS, AND INLAND PORTIONS OF LA COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY***
*** EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY FOR REMAINING COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY ***
* Temperatures:
* Coastal Plain max 85-105 today/Monday, 80-98 Tuesday/Wednesday
* Weak offshore flow resulting in dangerous heat expanding to immediate coastal areas of LA/Ventura counties today/Monday
* Valleys, Foothills, Lower Mountains, Deserts max 100-113 today/Monday, 98-110 Tuesday/Wednesday
* Multiple daily record high temperatures likely
* Mixing heights 12,000-20,000 feet across interior each afternoon
* Mins 72-87 each night across valleys, foothills/lower mountains
* Hot temperatures will bring many beachgoers through Labor Day
* Elevated surf across south facing beaches along with strong rip currents
* Humidity:
* Widespread minimums 15-30% away from coast today, 8-25% Monday-Wednesday
* Lowest humidity across interior portions of San Luis Obispo County
* Poor overnight recoveries, especially foothills/mountains
* Winds:
* Increasing southeast to east winds across higher terrain today/Monday
* Gusts 25-40 mph in the mountains.
* LAX-DAG gradient peaked at -2.5 mb this morning
* Thunderstorms:
* Most widespread threat today including mountains, deserts, and portions of the valleys
* Increasing monsoonal moisture will bring threat for heavy downpours capable of localized flash flooding, as well as minor debris flows in recent burn scars
* Fairly strong upper level winds should keep storms moving, but there is potential for training storms that could contribute to flooding risk
* Additional threats today include strong downdraft winds gusting over 50 mph, hail, and frequent lightning
* Slight chance (20 percent) of thunderstorms on Labor Day/Tuesday, focused across LA/Ventura mountains/Antelope Valley
* Threat of heavy downpours and localized flash flooding continues
* Probability reduced to 10-15 percent by Wednesday, focused over eastern San Gabriels/Antelope Valley
* Assessment:
* Elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions all areas away from immediate coast due to extended heat wave and low humidities
* Potential for large vertical plume growth for any new fires away from the immediate coast due to hot/unstable conditions
* Similar long duration heat waves generated large plume dominated fires in late August/early September (i.e. Station/Bobcat fires)
OUTLOOK: THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
* Hot temperatures continue across interior Thursday-Friday, with possible cooling by Saturday
* Continued dry conditions on Thursday with minimum humidities 12-25%
* Possible impacts from a decaying tropical system Thursday night through the weekend, but low confidence on details
* Chance of showers/thunderstorms (mainly Saturday)
* Potential large south-southeast swell with associated high surf/strong rip currents arriving by Thursday night/Friday
* Possible coastal flooding issues due to potential high surf coupled with high tides
Read the full fire weather planning forecast: https://go.usa.gov/xRFM3
Monitor the current conditions with the Fire Weather Snooper at: https://www.weather.gov/lox/fwmV3 <https://www.weather.gov/lox/fwmV3>
Monitor the latest Warnings, Watches, and Advisories here: https://go.usa.gov/xfrA3 <https://go.usa.gov/xfrA3>
Fire One Page is a one-stop-shop for fire weather links: https://www.weather.gov/lox/fire <https://www.weather.gov/lox/fire>
We continue to be open and staff 24/7 for any weather related needs.
If you have any questions, please do not respond to this email, but call us at 805-988-6626 (unlisted)
Thank you and have a safe Labor Day weekend!
David Gomberg
Fire Weather Program Manager
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
kristen.stewart@noaa.gov